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Monetary Policy Easing Is Worth Looking Forward To.

2015/2/3 13:59:00 10

Monetary PolicyMacro EconomyMarket Quotation

Before we cut interest rates, we have been improving China's economic prospects, including the expectation of reform.

But there is one thing that restricts the rise of the stock market, that is to say, our monetary policy is tight and compared with the changes in our economic situation, that is to say it is quite lagging.

That is to say, in the short term, there is still considerable pressure.

The reaction at the time of the rate cut is that we feel that some short-term risks have also been alleviated, and I think it is reasonable for the market to respond to a certain degree.

Why do we say once again that the central bank's interest rate reduction is expected to be reduced? Why is it going back to a problem? Why is it down for the first time? Why are the central banks all over the world doing the same thing? It's still coming back to inflation. When we did not fall in the price of oil, there was also this year: 2015.

Inflation

2.6, or even 3 of a prediction.

With this cut in oil prices, I don't think this year's inflation can see more than 1.5 of the possibility. Then everyone in the world is beginning to worry about deflation. I think China is also worried about deflation.

that

monetary policy

The first goal is inflation or CPI stability, neither inflation nor deflation, so from the implementation of a good monetary policy, such a high positive interest rate is not sustainable either from loan interest rate or from deposit interest rate.

The market is guessing time and intensity, but I think this is not only a matter of time, but a matter of time.

As for how to achieve this? Is it to cut interest rates? Now some people say that it is down to the standard. In fact, the central bank also says that it has many other tools, but what effect should we see in the market?

It is from

savings

At the end, it should not be like the present rate of interest rate of nearly three percentage points, while in the corporate lending side, it should not maintain a ten percentage point or even higher interest rate. Therefore, one direction of the central bank's operation is to reduce the interest rate of the market.

When we judged the market last year, we thought very simply that the valuation of the market reflected the extremely pessimistic expectations, and there was no expectation for any good thing to happen.

So whether monetary policy or reform, or some changes at the enterprise level, will cause this market to go up, but I think we also turn around and say that we also had a view that did not say (valuation repair) this is a year.

We also said that this may be a turning point of the stock market for many years. Is the turning speed of this inflection point to be 15% or 20% a year, or is it a relatively rapid increase in a period of time and then take some time to digest it?

I think the rhythm of every market is different.

But I think fundamentally speaking, it is the expected adjustment of the medium and long term reform, the economy, and the improvement of the capital market of the industrial enterprises. Now it is still looking forward to a driving force for the market after a monetary policy returns to normal. I think these should not be overstated.

From a short point of view, changes in market demand entities' policies and changes in the fundamentals of enterprises prove whether they are overly optimistic or overly pessimistic.

But I think after this adjustment, we still maintain a judgement of 20% rising space this year. We still feel that our changes, including our system dividend and price dividends, are just beginning to be released.

Let's go back to what you said just now, including monetary policy. We don't feel so anxious. It's less than a month since we left in 2015. We can see that our central bank will be late, but it should not be absent.


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