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Development And Reform Commission: Cotton Prices In The International Market In The First Half Of The Year And The Trend Analysis

2010/7/14 11:37:00 79

In the first half of this year, the price of cotton in the international market stabilized and the average price level was significantly higher than that of the same period last year.

The expected coexistence of global cotton production and production shortage in the new year will affect the fluctuation of cotton prices at the current price level in the coming period.

From 1 to June, the Cotlook A index and the seven spot market cotton (upland cotton, middle grade) and American cotton futures prices were 83.87 cents / pound, 76.69 cents / pound, 78.61 cents / pound respectively, up 46.05%, 54.76% and 58.22% respectively over the same period last year.

In terms of monthly output, the global cotton output this year,

Stock

In the first four months of this year, cotton prices continued to rise, and in the end of April, the UK Outlook Index and the US cotton futures rose to a 90 year high of 84 cents / pound and 84 cents / pound respectively.

After that, prices showed a high trend of stabilization. In June, the UK Outlook Index, the US cotton spot and the US cotton futures prices were 86.88 cents / pound, 79.39 cents / pound, 81.17 cents / pound, respectively, up 13.15%, 9.35% and 10.24% respectively compared with December last year, up 41.52%, 45.16%, 50.01% respectively compared with the same period last year.

From the supply and demand situation, the situation of production and demand will be clear in the end of August, and there will be little fluctuation in cotton prices before the new cotton market.

The expected coexistence of cotton production and production shortage in the New Year beginning in September will affect the fluctuation of cotton prices at the current price level in the coming period.

(1) the new year

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A substantial increase in output will have a negative effect on the continuous rise in cotton prices.

The US Department of Agriculture reports that global cotton production in 2010/11 is 24 million 890 thousand tons, an increase of 11.11% tons over the current year, an increase of 11.11% over the past three years, but it is still lower than the average annual output of 25 million 50 thousand tons since 2004/05.

It is estimated that the sown area of the United States cotton is 10 million 510 thousand acres, an increase of 14.86%, and output of 3 million 640 thousand tons, an increase of 37%.

Global cotton production has increased substantially, and supply and demand has improved. This forecast information will have a greater inhibitory effect on cotton prices in the international market, which has been rising for one and a half years.

(two) consumption will increase and inventory decline will support cotton prices.

The overall growth of the global economy is getting better.

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Consumer demand is picking up.

World cotton consumption is projected to be 26 million 20 thousand tonnes in 2010/11, basically recovering to the level of consumption before the global financial crisis. It is only behind 2006/07 and 2007/08 consumption in history, an increase of 2.63% compared with this year.

From the perspective of the demand and supply relationship in that year, cotton production has increased significantly, but there is still a gap of 1 million 130 thousand tons compared with demand, which needs to be filled up in fifth consecutive years, and the global stock of cotton will continue to decline.

It is estimated that the end of world cotton inventory in 2010/11 will drop to 10 million 800 thousand tons, a decrease of 5.02%, the lowest level in nearly six years.

As there is still a shortage of demand and inventory continues to decline in the next year, it is difficult to see a sharp downward trend in its supporting prices, which is expected to fluctuate at a high price level in the coming period.

(price monitoring center)