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Major Trend Of Home Textiles In 2011

2010/12/14 11:15:00 58

Home Textiles Home Textiles Economic Inflation Foreign Trade

What factors will affect the trend of China's home textile economy next year? Where will the focus of macroeconomic policy fall? Near the end of the year, these two suspense are the focus of many analysts, especially the strategic analysts of the investment community.

Combined with the current situation at home and abroad, there are six factors that will affect the economic trend and policy trend next year.

First, inflation.

Recently,

inflation

The problem has suddenly become the focus of attention of the whole society.

Next year, this problem will become even more prominent.

First, because of the global liquidity, the depreciation of the US dollar triggered import inflation; the two is the increase of resources, environment, labor and production costs; three, the acceleration of urbanization, the change of logistics structure and the increase of business cost; the four is the year-on-year factor in the first half of next year, and PPI and CPI are now in sync up. Next year's prices may be "high before and after low", and the situation is grim, but this is not the key.

Second, foreign trade.

Next year, domestic textile foreign trade growth pressure is not light.

First, global economic rebalancing, from developed economies.

Trade

The balance pressure and exchange rate pressure will not weaken; two, net export growth will continue to decline year by year, the growth will be more difficult, the contribution of net exports will be smaller, and even the economic growth will be dragged down. Three, if the import growth rate continues to outstrip exports, it will lead to a smaller surplus or even a deficit.

Third, investment.

Next year, with inflation pressure increasing and monetary policy returning to neutral gradually, investment behavior, especially real estate investment, is difficult to expand significantly.

Low carbon for existing housing.

environmental protection

Energy saving and other pformation can digest the excess capacity of the downstream industries such as home textiles, building materials, decoration, and so on, and increase the employment opportunities of low skilled labor intensive industries.

Fourth, consumption.

Affected by various pressures such as inflation, employment and income growth, the expansion of household consumption next year is also a long way to go.

Since inflation is a superposition of cost push and external input, consumer behavior will tend to be conservative when the economic situation tends to tighten.

At this point, if the stock market and other investment markets continue to fall, investors' property income will continue to shrink, and even investment assets will be eroded, which will pose a threat to the expansion of home textile consumption.

Fifth, growth.

Judging from the situation of next year, the pulling force of investment is stable in the three carriages driving economic growth. The situation of net exports is not optimistic. The expansion of household consumption lacks support from income growth and inflation resistance, and some macroeconomic policies are likely to return to neutral.

Therefore, the growth of home textiles next year will be more difficult than this year.

At the same time, due to the reasons of inflation prevention, the relevant policies have lagged effect, and will also affect the expected economic prosperity of home textiles.

Its six profit.

Next year, the performance of home textile enterprises will probably have a big drop.

In the first half of the year, in the initial stage of inflation, the profit of home textile enterprises in the first two quarters might be better because of the price increase.

However, in the second half or the next period of time, that is, in the middle and later stages of inflation, if the demand for home textile market shrinks and the cost of production rises, business profits will be difficult.

Therefore, next year's corporate profit situation is not optimistic.

Linking the above six factors, we can see that although there is a difference in performance, there is a common concern about deflation.

Because of the deep and structural causes of inflation, as long as we manage inflation at a moderate level of around 4% and maintain proper liquidity to ensure market prosperity and maintain a high level of economic growth at around 9%, it is possible to bypass the reef and take a smooth route.