The "High Cost Era" Quietly Comes To The Industry.

How many people are puzzled by the textile materials such as cotton and chemical fiber, and are struggling to find a reasonable answer; how many media pay great attention to "labor shortage" and find a proper solution in depth; how many companies complain that the RMB appreciation and trade frictions are frequent, and cost more for the export of products.

However, we do not know that these "pain" problems in the industry are actually coming quietly.

The cost of textiles has risen to a high level.

"From 12th Five-Year, China's economic development has entered the era of high cost."

Xu Jie, an expert in economics at National School of Administration, said, "first of all, the rising cost of factors is manifested in the marked rise in the cost of resources and energy.

Since the beginning of the new century, the price of resources and energy in the international market has been rising.

At the beginning of 2000, the international crude oil price was about $20 a barrel, and by the end of 2009, the price of crude oil rose to 80 dollars per barrel. During that period, it went through the frenzy of 147 dollars per barrel in October 2008, and the momentum of the rise will continue.

The rising price of resources and energy will be a long-term trend in the future.

Recently, cotton,

At the same time, the prices of chemical fiber raw materials also rose rapidly, and domestic PTA spot prices rose from 9170 yuan / ton in early December 2010 to 11780 yuan / ton, up 2610 yuan, or 28.46%. The price of MEG rose from 7900 yuan / ton in late November last year to 9950 yuan / ton, up 2050 yuan, or 25.95%.

Zheng Junlin, Secretary General of China Chemical Fiber Association, said that the recent increase in chemical fiber prices was mainly a cost driven growth.

The rapid rise of PTA prices has pushed up the cost of polyester polyester production, and has also promoted polyester filament.

The rise of production factors is also reflected in the rising trend of labor costs.

After the global financial crisis, labor shortage in the coastal cities of Southeast China has been widespread, and textile and other labor-intensive industries have become more prominent.

Although some employment enterprises have raised the wages of workers, there are still difficulties in recruiting workers.

For a long time, China's industrial structure, especially its industrial structure, has shown the characteristics of "two high and one capital", that is, high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products.

Experts say that the miracle of China's rapid economic development is partly due to the inefficient use of energy and the destruction of the environment, which has seriously affected the people's lives and the healthy and sustainable development of the economy.

At the Copenhagen conference in 2009, the Chinese government announced that it would achieve a 40% to 45% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product in 2020 than in 2005.

This means that governments and enterprises at all levels will substantially increase their expenditure on energy conservation and emission reduction.

In the textile industry, export costs continue to increase, adding pressure to enterprises.

After the financial crisis, protectionism in the world is bound to rise.

This feature has become more prominent in the past two years. In recent years, the number of anti-dumping investigations against chemical fiber products worldwide has increased sharply.

A report from the Chinese Academy of Sciences said that in the next few years, China will become a high incidence area of trade friction.

In addition, before the outbreak of the financial crisis, China's textile industry suffered from the pressure of RMB appreciation from the western developed countries.

Since the reform in 2005, the yuan has appreciated by 20%.

Since 2010, the pressure of RMB appreciation has been increasing.

It is expected that at least the next 5 years, the pressure of RMB appreciation will always exist, and exchange rate cost will become a cost that can not be ignored in the future export of domestic textile enterprises.

High cost reflects the level of economic development

Facts have proved that China's economy has entered the "high cost era", which shows that China's economy has developed to a higher level from one aspect.

This is because the rising cost of raw materials reflects the strong support formed by the rapid development of the industry. The increase in labor costs reflects that there is no surplus labor force in rural areas and the high growth of GDP is pforming into high labor value. The increase of low carbon cost will inevitably lead enterprises to reduce carbon emissions, which means the improvement of human living environment; and the rise of export cost also shows that China's trade competitiveness is rising.

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As far as the chemical fiber industry is concerned, the recent rise in chemical fiber raw materials does not exclude the impact of liquidity financing speculation. But objectively speaking, the market demand and the demand for industrial development are relatively strong, which is the basic factor for the price rise of this chemical fiber and its raw materials.

Since the second half of 2009, the textile and chemical fiber industry has experienced rapid recovery after the financial crisis, and the market operation and economic benefits are good.

Among them, the output of chemical fiber increased by 14%, and the output of main industries in the downstream industries of the chemical fiber increased rapidly. For example, the yarn output increased by 13.74% in 2010, of which the blended yarn grew by 13.38%, the chemical fiber yarn increased by 22.88%, the chemical fiber cloth output increased by 15.11%, the cord fabric output increased by 22.35%, and the non-woven fabric output increased by 24.23%.

Driven by the demand growth after the financial crisis, the prices of chemical fiber products and their raw materials also rose rapidly.

At the same time, the good economic benefits of the industry in 2010 also brought about the rapid growth of investment.

By the end of 2010, the ordering of spinning machines at several domestic and foreign chemical fiber main equipment manufacturers had basically reached the end of 2014.

Such a good demand for the future of the industry has also become an important factor in pushing up the current price of raw materials.

The polyester polyester industry has been in the peak of capacity expansion in 2010~2011 years, and the production capacity is mainly concentrated in the end of 2010 to the first half of 2011.

In 2010, the new polyester production capacity was 4 million 90 thousand tons / year. At the end of the year, the production capacity reached 30 million 570 thousand tons / year. It is estimated that the production capacity of new polyester will be 4 million tons / year in 2011. In the first half of this year, the new polyester production capacity will be 2 million tons / year, which is bound to have strong demand for PX and PTA.

After a substantial expansion in 2009, the growth rate of domestic PX capacity slowed down in 2010~2011 years. The capacity of PX reached 8 million 260 thousand tons / year at the end of 2010, and the new PX capacity in 2011 was about 1 million 800 thousand tons.

PTA, at the end of 2010, domestic production capacity reached 16 million 360 thousand tons / year. At present, construction capacity is 4 million 400 thousand tons / year, mainly concentrated in the second half of 2011.

According to the average operating rate of 80% domestic polyester enterprises in 2010, the monthly PTA demand in the first half of 2011 will reach 155 thousand tons, a total of 930 thousand tons, while the domestic PTA capacity will remain at 16 million 360 thousand tons / year at the end of 2010.

Objectively speaking, the development trend of China's chemical fiber industry has been fierce in recent years. However, it is mainly concentrated on the growth of quality production capacity, and the industrial strength is constantly increasing, to a large extent, a strong demand for raw materials such as PX and PTA.

High cost will become the norm.

It is undeniable that the most direct meaning of the "high cost era" is that the profit margins of enterprises are narrower and narrower, which is the lifeblood of a country's economic development.

If the profits of enterprises are less and less, or even a large area of losses, the sustainable development of the national economy can not be guaranteed.

Therefore, it is imperative to formulate long-term and feasible countermeasures from the government and enterprises at various levels, and deal with high costs through comprehensive industrial upgrading and structural adjustment of national economy.

Zheng Junlin, Secretary General of China Chemical Fiber Association, said in an interview with reporters that the recent sharp rise in domestic chemical fiber prices did not bring much benefits to domestic chemical fiber enterprises. This market is totally a cost driven market. Raw material prices rose significantly more than those of chemical fiber products. While the price of chemical fibers increased, the profits of chemical fiber enterprises had shrunk rapidly, and some enterprises even suffered losses.

Recently, Vice Premier Li Keqiang pointed out: "if we do not adjust our economic structure, it will be difficult to maintain stable operation of the economy, so it will be difficult for us to achieve sustained economic development."

Experts agree that China's economy has come to a stage of further structural adjustment.

Statistics show that the energy consumption per unit of GDP in China is 5 times that of Germany, 4 times that of Japan and 2 times that of the United States. China accounts for 18% of world energy, 44% of steel and 53% of cement and 8% of the world's total economic output. Chemical oxygen demand, carbon dioxide emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions and acid rain area all rank first in the world.

The main reason for the above problems is the extensive development mode. The fundamental problem is the lack of independent innovation capability of Chinese enterprises.

Sun Huaibin, director of the China Textile Economic Research Center, pointed out that the sensitivity of China's textile industry structure to the rise of factor cost is very high, mainly because the traditional manufacturing industries such as domestic textile industry are mostly at the low end of "smile curve", and rely on low factor inputs to get meager profits.

Therefore, the textile industry should promote industrial upgrading by overcoming the proportion of new industrial industries characterized by rising productivity and rising productivity, overcoming the pressure of rising cost of elements, and persisting in upgrading and upgrading traditional industries with new and high technology and advanced technology.

Sun Huaibin believes that promoting the low carbonization of existing industrial structure and developing low carbon technology and industry is an inevitable choice to deal with the increasing low carbon cost.

Promoting industrial structure low carbon and developing low carbon economy is an important direction of upgrading China's industrial structure.

To cope with the rising cost of exports, we should start with expanding domestic demand.

Sun Huaibin believes that one of the main reasons for the sharp rise in total exports in China is that domestic demand can still be effectively stimulated.

The key to the structural adjustment of China's textile industry lies in expanding domestic demand, changing the characteristics of export oriented industries, realizing the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand, and developing the two wheel drive industry.

Economist Mao Yushi also said in his blog that low cost economy is a necessary process for a country's economic development, and the economic status and human value and quality of life brought by high cost are the characteristics of the rational economic era.

China's economic development should enter into a more rational and rational stage of operation.

Compared with the developed countries, we can see that their labor cost is much higher than that of our country, but their products still have very strong competitiveness on the high price platform, which is due to their high technology content.

The "high cost era" has inevitably come, and the labor pains from "low cost" to "high cost" will continue to affect China's economic and social development as well as the textile industry in the coming period.

How to shorten this "pain period" and accomplish the pformation faster and better is an unavoidable problem.

Some chemical fiber enterprises responsible person told reporters: "high cost for the textile industry will become a norm.

High altitude materials and high labor costs raise higher requirements for textile enterprises' management and management capabilities, and will speed up polarization of the textile industry.

Advantageous enterprises have strong bargaining power, and industrial resources will gradually flow to large enterprises in the process.

"At this time, we pay more attention to the development of new products."

When talking about how to deal with high costs, many entrepreneurs think, "in the current difficult times, high-end positioning is more important for the future development of enterprises.

The defensive strategy of brand enterprises is to take the initiative to attack, strengthen product innovation, lock in costs and digest costs with high added value products, and expand profit margins.

At present, the state and industry have realized the importance of speeding up the development of cotton substitute products and the biomass fiber that is in line with the development of circular economy. We hope to achieve breakthroughs in the next 2~3 years, and play an active role in enriching textile raw materials and relieving the cost pressure of raw materials.