Nuclear Power Slows Down &Nbsp; Hydropower Or Energy Development Is The Main Force.

Under the pressure of energy gap, China's nuclear power construction slowdown is spawning. hydropower Speed up construction.

Japan Fukushima China has suspended its nuclear power plant accident. nuclear power The approval of new projects and the revision of medium and long-term plans for nuclear power will be changed from "vigorous development" to "safety and efficiency" in addition to the goal adjustment. In the absence of wind power and optoelectronics, the slowdown in nuclear power construction will increase some gaps, including power generation and investment.

In addition, due to China's commitment to non fossil energy consumption accounts for 15% of the primary energy consumption in 2020, the proportion of nuclear power is 4%. According to the established index of 11.4% in 12th Five-Year, the proportion of nuclear power is also more than 3%. The total figures 15% and 11.4% are binding, and nuclear power slowdown must be supplemented by other non fossil energy sources. According to the expert analysis, from the new 120 million kilowatt hydropower development target in 12th Five-Year, hydropower is most likely to fill the gap of nuclear power.

Nuclear power slowdown

At present, China's attitude towards nuclear power development is very clear. According to the requirements of the executive meeting of the State Council in March 16th, the next step will be a comprehensive review of the nuclear power stations under construction, and a safety assessment of all the nuclear power stations under construction. We must resolutely rectify the hidden dangers and stop construction immediately without meeting the safety standards. At the same time, we should work hard to compile the nuclear safety plan, adjust and improve the long-term and medium term development plans for nuclear power, and suspend the examination and approval of nuclear power projects, including the projects for preliminary work, before the approval of the nuclear safety plan.

Feng Yi, Deputy Secretary General of the China Nuclear Power Industry Association (CNEA), said in a media interview that the drafting of the nuclear energy law on the direction of nuclear energy development will be completed by October this year. The new nuclear safety regulations will also be completed by the end of this year. When the project approval is expected to be loosened, the 9 nuclear power projects to be approved this year will soon be lifted in early 2012.

According to the construction period of nuclear power, it usually takes 5 to 6 years to start from operation to commercial operation. Then, in the early stage of construction projects and new projects to be approved, the long-term development goals of nuclear power, including the 12th Five-Year development goals, will be affected by the least two years.

Before the Japanese nuclear accident, the new energy development plan of the National Energy Bureau will reach 49 million kilowatts in 2015 and 70 million -8000 kilowatts by 2020. The installed nuclear power will account for more than 5% of the total installed power. After the accident, the above figures may shrink, but even if there is a reduction, the conservative target will be around 70 million kilowatts.

"The main problem now is not the number of long-term goals." An energy industry analyst said, "the medium and long-term goals can be adjusted at any time, but the immediate nuclear power will cause a lot of stagnation."

According to the analyst, China's commitment to non fossil energy consumption accounts for 15% of the primary energy consumption by 2020, of which nuclear power accounts for 4%. According to the established index of 11.4% in 12th Five-Year, the proportion of nuclear power is also over 3%. "The total figures 15% and 11.4% are binding. Nuclear power slowdown must be supplemented by other non fossil energy sources. Who will fill the vacancy is a problem."

According to the arrangement of the energy conference of the Energy Bureau this year, priority will be given to the construction of coastal nuclear power this year. The inland nuclear power projects will be steadily promoted. The two phases of Tianwan, the two phase of the Hongyan River, the two phase of the three gates, and the two phase of Haiyang will be started in a timely manner.

From the current delay in the examination and approval, including inland nuclear power projects and the first phase of the Peach Blossom River waiting for construction projects will be on standby. And for the meeting put forward to reduce coal dependence, to play an important role in coping with climate change, "efficient" as a nuclear power term in 12th Five-Year or will be changed to "safe and efficient".

Hydroelectric leap forward

While nuclear power is slowing down approvals, who will make up for the shortfall in nuclear power has become a new focus. According to the calculation of non fossil energy accounts for 11.4% in 2015, nuclear power plants will need to reach 49 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of 30 million 970 thousand kilowatts will be deducted, and the installed capacity of 18 million kilowatts will not be built in time.

According to the electricity production data released by China Electric Power Association in 1-2 months, the total electricity output in the first two months was 677 billion 300 million kwh, of which nuclear power generated 13 billion 600 million kilowatt hours, accounting for 2%. According to the current installed capacity of 10 million 820 thousand kilowatts of nuclear power, the 18 million kilowatts installed capacity will affect at least 11 billion kilowatt hours of electricity supply per month.

However, this figure is huge for both wind power and photovoltaic power generation. From the current generation capacity, the annual power generation of wind power is no more than 20 billion kwh, which is less than 2 billion kwh per month, but the installed capacity of wind power has been turned over for 5 consecutive years. To compensate for the nuclear power consumption of nearly 11 billion kilowatt hours per month, it needs to turn 5 more on the basis of the current development of wind turbines, that is, from the current 44 million 730 thousand kilowatt installed capacity to 200 million kilowatts.

According to the new energy development plan of the Energy Bureau, by 2020, the national wind power plan will be installed at 150 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of the national wind power plan is 90 million kilowatts in 2015, that is to say, to fill the gap, it is necessary to overfulfill the 2020 wind power plan by 2015.

"More importantly, the cost of generating electricity by wind and photovoltaic is relatively high, and the power generation of the two generation is intermittent. At present, it can not serve as a stable power supply for a single power supply." The energy industry analyst told reporters.

Not only that, the news said that the approval of small wind power projects will be tightened, but the national energy board is studying and formulating management measures for standardizing the approval system of wind power projects. It is necessary for the local governments to obtain a reply from the National Energy Bureau before approving the wind power project with installed capacity of under 50 thousand kilowatts, otherwise they will not pass. "So at present, the non fossil energy that is most likely to replace nuclear power is water and electricity." The above analysts said, "the current generation cost of hydropower is lower than the electricity price of the grid, and the current generation of hydropower is far more than that of nuclear power, which is the most capable of making up the gap of nuclear power generation in non fossil energy."

According to the statistics of CLP, the hydropower generating capacity in 1-2 is 72 billion 400 million kilowatts, far higher than the 13 billion 600 million kilowatts of nuclear power. But hydropower also has its own power generation problems, one is the construction of hydropower disputes are more controversial, EIA and immigration issues have been controversial. On the basis of the original planning, it is more difficult to scale development, and the other is the transmission of hydropower. The supply of nuclear power is mostly in the southern coastal area, while hydropower is located in the southwest of China. How to distribute water and electricity to the nuclear power gap area is also a difficult point. The analysts said.

But even so, the reporter found that in the quiet nuclear power sector, the Department's expectation for hydropower has already shown signs. Liu Qizai, deputy director of the State Energy Bureau, recently held a symposium on hydropower development. He clearly stated that under the premise of doing well in ecological protection and resettlement, hydropower development should be actively developed and the goal of building 120 million kilowatts of hydropower during the "12th Five-Year" period should be clearly defined.

At present, the total installed capacity of China's hydropower plants is more than 200 million kilowatts, plus the 120 million kilowatt hydropower plan. By the end of 12th Five-Year, the capacity of hydropower will reach 320 million kwh. In 11th Five-Year, the installed capacity of hydropower is less than 5 million kilowatts per year. From the new planning, the installed capacity of hydropower will reach 20 million kilowatts per year in the next 5 years.

Enterprises seem to have seen the potential of hydropower development. Some people have said that since last year, several major state-owned power groups began to target small and medium sized hydropower stations on the tributaries of the river, and stepped up the acquisition. At present, the hydropower resources of major basins in China are basically allocated by several major state-owned power groups except the Yarlung Zangbo River.