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Spot Is Still Unmarketable &Nbsp; Zhengmian Wants To Rise And Has No Strength.

2011/7/21 17:32:00 33

Spot Cotton Futures

The overnight heat of the US cotton has spread to the mainland, and it has obviously cooled more than half.


On Tuesday evening, the US cotton futures all closed, the main contract in December closed 100.84 cents / pound, up 4.13%.

Affected by this, Zheng cotton yesterday opened high, but all day high and low, full of weakness.

As of the end of the day, Zheng cotton main contract 1201 received 21550 yuan / ton, down 275 yuan or 1.26%.


What is expected to be a rebound in the Zheng cotton market? The industry believes that the domestic cotton market downturn is the main reason for the weakening of futures, and for a period of time, the weakness of Zheng cotton is still difficult to change.


Guotai Junan Futures analyst Zhou Xiaoqiu said that overnight U.S. cotton trading limit, on the one hand is the decline of the dollar and the need for us cotton to overshoot and rebound.

In addition, the excellent and good rate of US cotton growth is lower than that of previous years, and it also has a certain boost to the market.

As domestic cotton stocks remain fairly large, the role of international cotton prices in domestic cotton prices has weakened at the current stage.


"Before new cotton comes into the market,

market demand

The situation is the most important factor affecting prices.

At present, the price of the CF1201 contract is 8.12% different from the new year's policy purchase price (19800 yuan / ton), while the downstream consumption situation is still showing no signs of improvement. The possibility of short-term price decline continues to exist, but the pace of decline will slow down.

Zhou Xiaoqiu said.


It is understood that since the beginning of this year, the overall downturn in the domestic textile industry has led to a marked decline in cotton demand, and the price of cotton has also fallen sharply. Zheng cotton has fallen nearly 40% from 34000 yuan / ton, and the US cotton futures price is almost cut.


At present, the domestic

Cotton market

Still in the doldrums, from raw materials to products, the upstream and downstream sales are serious, and the power to recover is not enough.

Some cotton enterprises reflect to reporters, at this stage, the market procurement is low, and enterprises generally do not look after the market.


Relevant data show that domestic cotton sales progress this year is still slow, and downstream gauze stocks are also high.

The China cotton industry inventory survey report released by the national cotton market monitoring system showed that as of July 6th, the domestic yarn production and sales rate was 89.5%, the stock was 25 days, an increase of 16.7 days compared to the same period, the cloth production and sales rate was 84.6%, and the stock was 49.7 days, an increase of 20.1 days compared with the same period last year, the highest level since November 2009.


The overall downturn in the industry has made the cotton market even worse.

Everbright

futures

Dong Dandan said that the high price of cotton in the fourth quarter of 2010 led to the pfer of many cotton spinning orders to chemical fibers, and the substitution effect of polyester and cotton gradually emerged. This makes the polyester production and operation rate continue to be high this year. On the disk, the trend of PTA is stronger than cotton.


Analysts pointed out that the situation of new cotton also has a negative effect on the market.

According to the reporter, cotton production area of major cotton producing countries has increased significantly this year.


The US Department of agriculture report shows that in 2011, the US cotton sown area was 83 million 379 thousand mu, an increase of 25% over the same period last year.

According to the relevant agencies, the output of China's new cotton will also increase. If the weather is normal in the late period, the new cotton output per unit area will be 93.06 kg / mu, 9.29% higher than the previous year, and the total output of cotton is expected to be 7 million 390 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 18.61% over the previous year.


Shanghai mid-term analyst sees the thunder thunder to think, at present the cotton price mainly is the domestic guidance foreign country, the recent Zheng cotton adds the warehouse obviously, displays the difference between the air and the air is bigger, continues to have the capital to enter the field to make the bounce.

Therefore, short term cotton may be returned technically, but the weakness of the futures market is hard to change before the spot market gets warmer.

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