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Cotton Low And Low &Nbsp; Continuous Downward Trend.

2011/9/19 16:50:00 33

Cotton (20250,15.00,0.07%)

futures

The 16 day was low, and a small number of subsequent investors were selling off before the weekend. But the broker said the market was still in the trading range, but it could remain in the next week.

The ICE index fell about 1.10 cents in December cotton and was 1.1052 dollars per pound.

19, Zheng cotton 1205 contract continued to lower.

Low opened at 21730, the highest 21730, the lowest 21620, closed at 21685, compared with the previous trading day fell 115 points (-0.53%).

Cotton index positions are reduced by 17572, and turnover is more than 200 thousand.

Spot market, China's cotton in September 19th

Price

The index (328) was 19798 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton.

In September 16th, the import cotton price index (FCIndex S) was 130.70 cents / pound, down 1.33 cents; 1% tariff 21246 yuan / ton, down 214 yuan / ton; discount sliding duty 21681 yuan / ton, down 212 yuan / ton.

At present, cotton picking in the middle and lower reaches of cotton production area in the Yellow River has been gradually started. Last year, it was precisely because of the early weather during the early harvest that the cotton production was greatly reduced.

This year weather has similar situation. At present, Shandong has been cloudy and rainy for a long time. The market is worried that cotton output will be affected again.

However, judging from the current situation, the increase in production in Xinjiang has been basically settled. Even if the the Yellow River basin is located in the Hebei Shandong Henan cotton region, the total output of domestic cotton should also be near 7 million tons in accordance with the 20% reduction in production, so the weather will be limited.

According to the latest statistics, China's cotton planting area is 80 million 180 thousand mu in 2011/12, and its growth is 4.1% compared to the same caliber.

Estimate

Reaching 7 million 380 thousand tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.

In the new year, global and domestic cotton supply and demand will remain oversupplied, so the probability of cotton price rise will be low.

Especially in the context of the global economic recovery is not optimistic, cotton consumption or will continue to lower the background.

Judging from the trend of the disk, today, Zheng cotton 1205 opened lower, the price shock dropped after opening, the lowest to 21620, then rebounded, and positions continued to shrink.

Cotton continued to decline, but the moving average has not yet completely turned empty, the latter direction is still not good judge.

At present, it is recommended to continue to wait and see.

The above views are for reference only, not as market participants.

paction

Basis.

Futures are risky and investment must be prudent.