Consumption Is Weak. Zheng Cotton Is Still Hibernating.

Since October, the huge fluctuations of commodities have not brought a little warmth to the once brilliant star of Zheng cotton. Zheng cotton Still maintain a range of 20000 - 20500 yuan / ton interval oscillation, the main 1205 contracts at the bottom of 20000 yuan / ton, trading volume decreased significantly, the position is relatively stable. Under the premise of no obvious improvement in downstream consumption, the cotton price of the policy underpinning will be maintained. Weakness 。

　　 Weak downstream consumption has not changed significantly

Customs data show that in October 2011, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 19 billion 649 million US dollars, a decrease of 14.50% compared to the same period, an increase of 10.38% over the previous year, of which 1 - October exports amounted to 205 billion 784 million US dollars, up 22.79% over the same period last year, but from the overall situation, exports to the EU and the United States are obviously different. The export volume of China's textile and clothing to the EU Speed up If we consider the price increase factor, we expect that the export volume will grow less than 10% from 1 to October in 2011. Under the plagued by many factors, such as electricity shortage, labor shortage, appreciation of RMB and rising cost of raw materials, the survival environment of textile enterprises is even worse than that of 2008. The demand for replenishment of stocks in the future will be severely suppressed, and there is no sign of improvement in the short term.

The purchase and storage slow effect on the supply and demand balance table is the only policy support for the current cotton reserve 19800/ ton. Since November, the storage capacity has been enlarged, mainly due to the weakness of the spot market and the futures market. As of November 15th, the total number of temporary storage and storage totaled 506840 tons, of which 361400 tons were accumulated in Xinjiang and 145440 tons in the mainland. store up The increase of volume will gradually affect the balance of supply and demand, but it still needs a process. It is widely expected that domestic cotton output will reach or even exceed 7 million 500 thousand tons in 2011/2012. reserves The increase of cotton market prices will increase the imagination of the market. Once the demand is getting warmer, the cold market will be over.

　　 No hot spots in the market

No matter from the fluctuation of price, or the change of volume and position, Zheng cotton has no larger imagination in the past month or even for a long time in the future. In the short term, the market lacks obvious hot spots in the cotton market. Selling the hedging disk brings great pressure to the price. The selling price of 20500 yuan / ton is obviously increased, but the resistance still exists on the top of the price. Operation, we need to pay attention to the change of position, with the increase of volume, the future price space will be opened up.