Clothing And Textile Industry: Terminal Consumption Fell &Nbsp; Give Overweight Rating.
Terminal consumption is declining.
Brand clothing
The company has high operational risk and is worth cautious.
We believe that the next half year macro
Economics
Background is not good, brand clothing as a strong consumer goods, its terminal sales elasticity is bigger, so it is expected that the future growth of brand clothing terminal consumption will be more obvious decline.
From the recent industry and company data, the terminal downward trend has taken shape and is expected to decline further in the next half year.
At present, the operation risk of listed companies is generally larger. Accounts receivable, inventory and other aspects have significantly deteriorated compared with the same period last year. There are more channel stocks, and orders will increase generally in the early summer of 2012. Therefore, the inventory of franchisees in the next half year will be further increased, and the higher operational risk will enlarge the impact of terminal consumption decline in the future.
The three logic filters the investment target in bear market.
We believe that the companies with higher growth expectations next year will have relatively high space in the future handover of valuation handover. At present, companies with relatively small operating risks have stronger ability to resist systemic risks, and the market with relatively weak elasticity in subdivision and positioning is relatively small.
Based on the above logic, we are relatively optimistic about the three or four consumer areas with relatively low consumption elasticity and strong competitiveness.
Textile and garment manufacturing industry is turning out and will be difficult to invest in the future.
With the rapid increase of labor force in recent years and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the cost advantage of textile and garment industry in export has disappeared.
Since the beginning of this year, the major textile and garment importing countries such as the United States and Japan have begun to reduce the share of imports from China, which means that the trend of textile and garment manufacturing industry has gradually shifted out and has been established. It is expected that in the long run, there will be no industrial investment opportunities.
The textile manufacturing companies with strong technical superiority and small scale are worth our attention.
From the present textile
Clothing industry
In terms of policy orientation, technological innovation, energy conservation and environmental protection are the main themes.
From the experience of textile manufacturing industry in Europe, all those who survive are those with strong technological superiority and relatively small scale.
According to our research, the difficulties of textile and garment manufacturing industry are mainly from the resource gap of technology and influence. We think that breaking through the gap of technological resources is more feasible for manufacturing enterprises than two.
Based on the above point of view, we believe that Shandong's strong technology "moat" Ruyi, Weixing shares and Xun Xing shares are worth our attention.
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