In The Two Quarter, The Market Slowly Picked Up &Nbsp; Good Bonds And Gold.

The fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year was the weakest time for domestic economic growth, the two quarter. economic growth From downlink to stabilization and gradual recovery, it is predicted that the GDP growth in the two quarter will be around 8.5%. Although there are many risk factors for A shares, the analysis of the macro factors from the periphery to the domestic level maintains a neutral and positive view of the market.

Judging from the overseas situation, almost all the world since this year. equity market There is no small increase. European financial markets are getting better. The cost of treasury bonds in Italy and Spain tends to be stable. At the same time, all risky assets are rising, such as high-yield bonds, non-ferrous metals and so on. Gao Ting pointed out that the interesting phenomenon is that the US Treasury bond market and German bond yields are now rising. Treasury bonds have always been safe haven, which has been below 2%, and now the yield has reached 2%-3%, indicating that the risk appetite of funds is rising again.

These phenomena are based on two fundamental improvements. First, the US's economic data are good, and the two is the European Central Bank's total injection of one trillion euros, easing the liquidity risk of banks and changing the expectation of the political situation in Europe.

Therefore, in the international market, UBS believes that the stock market will go further in the next 6 months, but the growth rate will slow down, and the stock market in the US and emerging markets will be more popular. At the same time, UBS is optimistic about corporate bonds [133.33 0.01%] and emerging market bonds, and gold is also a promising commodity. Foreign currencies are optimistic about the US dollar and the pound, and the euro.

From the domestic economic situation, the first quarter economic data show that basically all the indicators of big projects are at the low point of growth, such as retail, fixed assets investment, import and export three major items, industrial production is weak, the speed of economic slowdown is obvious, and inflation pressure is not large in the short term. Monetary policy is gradually easing, so Gao Ting expects that the GDP growth in the two quarter will be 8.5%, not a substantial increase, but a stabilization.

One of the biggest uncertainties in the current economy is the uncertainty in the real estate market. The real estate market is mainly affected by credit in the short and medium term. If the credit policies and restrictions on the real estate industry are still strictly implemented, the sales will continue to shrink, which will have a greater negative impact on investment and investment demand.

From previous years, real estate has two peak sales periods, 4, May and 9 and October of autumn. If the real estate sales begin to increase after the Spring Festival, the rise will continue to reach 4 and May, which will have a strong impetus to market confidence. But if it starts to stagnate, it may be a rebound. Therefore, we must pay close attention to the two quarter of the real estate market sales are down.

The second risk factor is whether oil prices will continue to rise. In the whole year, oil prices are worth noting. It is not a big problem now. But if the situation worsens in Iran and continues to soar to 140-150, the impact will be bigger.

Third, we should pay close attention to the implementation of the new projects after the two sessions, that is, the intensity of the government's policies, which will also affect the future economic trend.

Therefore, overall, the overall situation of the A share market in the two quarter is getting better, but there may be some pressure in April. The more promising sectors are consumption Because the government will take some actions to promote consumption in April, and the profitability of consumer stocks is relatively high. The other is to underestimate the value of a robust blue chip. Meanwhile, the two quarter. bond market It will be better, especially for high-yield bonds.