Cotton Throwing And Storage On Cotton Market Pressure On Cotton Prices As A Whole

"P" recently, Zheng cotton has gone out of the oscillation market, and the macroeconomic improvement has created conditions for stabilizing commodity prices. Meanwhile, the determination of the price of "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> cotton > /a" has boosted market confidence. However, from the perspective of policy, the probability of large quantities of dumping and suppression of the market is small, and the probability of dumping small quantities of batches is large, and the pressure on the market is limited in general.

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< p > < strong > throwing storage pressure is limited < /strong > < /p >.

< p > January 14th, the Central Cotton store began to throw cotton reserves in public bidding.

By analyzing the dumping and storage notice, the price of the 3 grade cotton is 19000 yuan / ton, which is basically in line with market expectations.

The total amount of dumping and storage planned for the first day of storage is 38 thousand tons, of which more than 90% are old cotton before 2009, and less attractive to enterprises with less than a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > textile > /a >.

The dumping and storage notice does not mention the total amount of dumping and storage and the period of dumping and storage, nor does it mention the problem of tying the sale of the reserve and quota 3:1. However, it is pointed out that the enterprises participating in the dumping and storage can apply for cotton import quotas, which provides operational space for the latter countries to control the market by throwing and storing policies and quota policies, and also indicates that the state will release cotton reserves step by step.

It is not difficult to speculate on the policy intentions from the details of the first day plan. First, throw out the store of Chen cotton and then release the reserves of 2011 in a small batch. This will have a relatively short term effect on the market and will help to analyze the policy effect. With the gradual increase of the reserves, the impact on the price will gradually appear.

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< p > 2012, cotton was temporarily carried out and stored in an orderly manner. By the end of January 11th, the total amount of cotton temporary storage and storage in 2012 has been 5 million 580 thousand tons. If the latter is calculated according to the storage capacity of 20 thousand tons / day, the total amount of storage and storage will reach 6 million 500 thousand tons, accounting for 90% of the estimated cotton output of 7 million 220 thousand tons.

Because the price of storage and purchase is higher than that of stock market, the purchase and storage has completely occupied the spot market, futures market and matching market space, and has completely changed the market structure. In the later period, the government's ability to regulate and control cotton prices has been greatly enhanced, which is conducive to the healthy development of the cotton textile industry.

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< p > < strong > inventory pressure is still significantly less than /strong > /p >

< p > due to large-scale cotton purchase and storage, China's cotton stocks are at a historical high level, while downstream demand is still weak, and cotton prices are facing greater pressure in the medium term.

Recently, the US Department of Agriculture announced the supply and demand report in January. The report has increased global cotton output and ending inventory, reducing consumption.

The adjusted cotton consumption in China was 7 million 729 thousand tons, down 17% from the five year average, ending at 8 million 841 thousand tons, 74% higher than the five year average, and 114% to the inventory consumption ratio.

The huge cotton inventory has brought unprecedented pressure to the price. Although the purchase and storage has eased the surplus situation of cotton, but because the rate of consumption warming is obviously slower than expected, the inventory digestion rate is much lower than that of the normal year. Therefore, inventory digestion takes a long time, and the storage pressure is still the most important factor for restricting cotton price in the later period.

In the medium term, cotton prices are still liable to fall.

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< p > < strong > textile demand slowly rebounded < /strong > < /p >

"P > Spring Festival approaching, domestic textile enterprises have to leave in advance, the operating rate remains low, but textile enterprises have a slightly optimistic attitude towards the market outlook, and expect textile orders to gradually improve after the Spring Festival.

According to the cotton information network survey, in 2012 December, the stock of cotton industry was 792 thousand and 900 tons, and the amount of cotton increased to 45%, and 40% of the enterprises had been cautiously optimistic about the future market.

In the same month, China's export textiles < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > US $24 billion 100 million, an increase of 10.8% over the same period last year, reflecting the slow improvement of downstream demand.

I believe that textile orders will continue to increase as the economy improves in the US after the Spring Festival.

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< p > above all, in the end, dumping and storing information finally determined that the possibility of massive inventory entering a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton market < /a > will be reduced, while the macro-economy will play a stronger role in the short term to boost the market. Zheng cotton short line is expected to hit the 19500 line, and the middle term will still maintain the empty thinking.

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