The Price Difference Between Chinese And Foreign Cotton Is Obvious. Chinese Textile Mills Are Waiting To Import 40% Tariff Cotton

　　ICE Cotton futures -The characteristics of the first half of this week are that the trading continued to be listless, the price hovered around 77.50 cents, the trading volume was reduced, and the rolling of positions between December and March contracts basically ended. However, the market was strong in the morning yesterday, once clearing the recent resistance and activating a series of stop loss buying. The market price rebounded 200 points from this week's low, but as the closing approached, the market fell back, giving up most of its gains. Whether this market behavior is due to technical reasons or fundamental reasons, there are disputes.

In fact, the recent price behavior is obviously different from the energy shock. If the RSI and random index show (for example, the price is at a new low, but the RSI/random index does not). Many times, this situation indicates that this dynamic is about to end, at least temporarily, and then there will be staged corrective actions. It is rumored that China intends to Reserve cotton The sales plan was postponed to December or January, which seemed to explain some market developments yesterday.

As mentioned in the previous report, the large price difference between Chinese and foreign cotton prices is still a supporting factor, and the current prices are relatively close Imported cotton At the level of 40% tariff, Chinese textile mills began to feel the reason for import (based on the assumption that the selling price of reserve cotton was 18000 yuan/ton).

Technical aspect: compared with last week, there was no significant change. The main trend is bearish, but upward corrective trading actions are likely. The support level is 77.50-77.00 cents. If it falls below, the minimum support level is 75.00 cents. The short-term key resistance level is 80.50-81.50 cents. If the closing price is higher than 84.00 cents or the value stabilizes 84.00 cents, the current bearish pattern may be denied.