Upstream PX Continues To Decline, PTA Price Rebate Space Is Very Limited.

< p > < strong > upstream PX is hard to protect < /strong > /p >

< p > in recent years, PTA price rebound has been promoted by PX.

Only when PX prices go up can PTA rebound.

However, in the process of PX continuing decline, it is difficult for PTA to get a decent rebound.

After the completion of the contract signing of the downstream market, PTA enterprises are expected to overhaul, which will significantly reduce the demand for PX after the Spring Festival. With the launch of Pengzhou, Saudi Arabia, Tenglong, Li Dong and other devices, the price of PX still has room to fall, which is expected to fall to $1200 / tonne line, and the corresponding PTA cost is 6600 yuan / ton.

This will drag down the price of PTA.

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< p > < strong > PTA exceeds supply and the situation worsens. < /strong > /p >

< p > as of January 15th, the operating rate of PTA enterprises was 81.9%. The decline was due to the reduction of the load of 2 million tons of Sheng Ningbo and 900 thousand of Chongqing's 900 thousand units.

Polyester < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester industry < /a > current operating rate is only about 71%, although some enterprises will plan to stop production to reduce production, but overall, the operating rate is still declining.

In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, weaving was stopped earlier and the load was only about 50%.

It is estimated that the domestic PTA social inventory will increase by 300 thousand tons in January.

Moreover, in February, the new capacity of Xiang Lu 4 million 400 thousand tons PTA will be gradually put into operation, and 10 million tons of production capacity will be put into production later.

Therefore, without going through the industry shuffling, PTA's downfall is hard to stop.

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< p > < strong > downstream > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester < /a > suppress PTA price < /strong > /p >

< p > at present, the dynamic profit of polyester polyester varieties is about 100 - 200 yuan / ton, which is caused by the decline in raw material prices.

If the price of PTA and MEG rebounded, polyester polyester enterprises will not be active in starting up, or polyester enterprises will be postponed and contract goods will be sold on the futures market.

Polyester polyester enterprises in 2014 only about 5 million tons of new capacity, the growth rate is significantly lower than the upstream.

The right to speak of polyester polyester enterprises in the industrial chain will gradually surpass that of PTA enterprises. Because of the difficulty in improving domestic sales of terminal textile and garment exports, polyester polyester enterprises can only suppress the PTA price of raw materials to ensure their own profits.

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< p > < strong > the warehouse receipt pressure is difficult to resolve < /strong > < /p >

< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a > futures 1401 contract delivery ended smoothly, but due to the larger delivery volume, short-term impact on futures and spot prices is stronger.

From the point of delivery matching, buying agencies are mainly COFCO futures, Zhejiang new century, Nanhua futures, Zhejiang futures and Shanghai Tong Lian futures seats.

At present, these institutions are holding 84 thousand positions in the 1405 contracts, except for the 9600 hand average price of the new century seats in Zhejiang, which is about 7150 yuan / ton, and the average positions of other institutional seats are all above 7300 yuan / ton.

From 16 days this month, Zheng Shang began to reduce the margin of PTA futures from 8% to 6%, relieving the pressure of long term funds and short term PTA price rebound.

But from the point of view of market game, the 1405 contract has a higher upward pressure on the 7150 yuan / ton line.

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< p > overall, no matter the cost, supply and demand can not support the sharp rebound in PTA prices, the 7100 yuan / ton line can still be sold out, leaving the market after signals such as polyester start up more than 80% and PX price rebounded sharply.

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