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RMB Devaluation Helps Stabilize The Market Or Liquidity Measures For The Central Bank

2014/5/5 22:35:00 23

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 for the reasons for the continued depreciation of the RMB, the exchange rate analyst of the Guangdong branch of the Bank of China said: "the devaluation of the RMB, regardless of its magnitude and duration, is the first time since the reform of the exchange rate mechanism in 2005. Its factors are also complicated. The main reason is that the unilateral appreciation of the RMB has caused the imbalance of the market for a long time. The influx of hot money and the prevalence of arbitrage have caused the RMB exchange rate to deviate from the equilibrium level, and the market needs to be adjusted urgently. At the same time, the downward pressure on China's macro-economy since the beginning of this year and the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing policy by the United States have led to the return of funds, which has prompted the RMB to weaken. He believes that "in fact, policy objectives or greater fluctuations, rather than sustained depreciation." 
 in fact, the phenomenon of hot money pouring into China has begun to appear. Statistics show that by the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, China's foreign exchange reserves totaled US $3 trillion and 820 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of the year, with the large interest rate differentials and huge trade surplus. The foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter increased by 157 billion 300 million US dollars, while the foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter of 2012 increased by only US $26 billion 500 million. 
 under the background of continuous "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "hot money < /a" influx and RMB unilateral appreciation expectations, this makes the central bank control the liquidity of the market more and more difficult. Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of China Merchants Bank's financial market, told reporters in the first financial daily that the central bank's regulation is only to strengthen control over China's domestic liquidity, and the expansion of the exchange rate in March this year is also a measure taken by the central bank. 
 but for the continued depreciation of the renminbi, Lagarde, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has a positive attitude. Christine Lagarde. On the 11~12 session of the twenty-ninth international monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) meeting on April, Lagarde welcomed China's expansion of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range. She thought it was the right step towards the internationalization of RMB. Lagarde said: "the recent fluctuation in the RMB exchange rate is not a deliberate depreciation, but a part of RMB internationalization." 
 for the later trend of the RMB exchange rate, Liu Dongliang believes that if the central bank continuously adjusts the market, the renminbi will remain devalued in the later stage, and it may also be arranged sideways. If the central bank lets go and the market decides the RMB exchange rate, then the latter trend will rise. 
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The continued depreciation of the RMB P has also had some impact on the market. Standard Chartered Bank said that the demand for gold in China has weakened. At the same time, the continued depreciation of the renminbi also played a cooling role in the arbitrage of speculators. 
"China's demand for gold is expected to weaken in the coming months due to exchange rate changes," said Jeremy East, head of metal trading at Standard Chartered Bank, P. 
 after the financial crisis, many speculators chose to make profits through interest spread trading with low yield currencies and high yield currencies. Unilateral appreciation and low interest rates and low volatility made RMB a favorite investment target for speculators. 
Nowadays, when the fluctuation range is widened and the two-way fluctuation is taken place, the unilateral and stable market of RMB will probably not appear before. This will also increase the risk of speculators and force some speculators to withdraw from the arbitrage of RMB P. 
Aaron Carol, Lumen of Singapore emerging market hedge fund Lumen Advisors LLC, said that the dissipation of hot money flowing into the RMB interest rate trading will help to achieve long-term stability. P "If the fluctuation of the RMB reflects China's excessive interest rate trading and leverage, then it is necessary to maintain this momentum, which will definitely reduce the attractiveness of interest rate trading," he said. But as long as there is a clear margin, this transaction will not disappear. " 
 Liu Dongliang said that the action of the central bank will make the unilateral appreciation of the RMB unsustainable, and the two-way fluctuation will become the main trend. The expansion of the fluctuation range will effectively crack down on the arbitrage of RMB.