Ali Listing Impact Of Horse Changing Tencent QDII First Heavy Position Position

Alibaba listed on the NYSE, becoming the world's largest IPO, and has replaced Tencent as the leading Internet share in China.

Before and after the listing of Alibaba, overseas institutional investors have been discussing whether to change horses from Tencent to Alibaba.

Data show that at the end of the two quarter of 2014, Tencent was the first big margin shareholder of qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII), with a market value exceeding RMB 2 billion 200 million yuan.

After the listing of Ali, will QDII change from Tencent to Alibaba? How big will the horse changing effect affect the position of QDII's largest heavy position? The securities analysts and QDII fund managers disagree. The mainstream view is that the listing of Ali will have some impact on the share price of Tencent, but in the short term it is difficult to change the position of QDII's first heavy position in the short term. In 2015, it will be possible to replace Tencent and become the first heavy margin company in QDII.

Less QDII shares allocated Ali

The information of the new shares allocated by the agency has not been disclosed. According to the reporter, the number of QDII that can be matched with new shares of Ali is very small, and the amount allocated is relatively lower than that of the QDII fund, which is far lower than the proportion of Tencent holdings.

Reporters learned that, known to be equipped with new shares of Ali has Cathay global and Bo China Asia Pacific two QDII.

Huaxia Fund was allocated $20 million, and China Hongkong was allocated $1 million 600 thousand, which is the largest share of all fund companies in China with Alibaba.

It is reported that some of the $20 million allocated by the Chinese fund has been allocated to the Chinese world. The specific amount is not large. It has little contribution to the QDII with a management scale of more than 12 billion yuan, far less than the market value of Tencent holdings held by China Daily in 2014 (644 million yuan). Tencent holdings is currently the world's largest heavyweight shareholder.

The total fund of the time fund was allocated approximately $5 million for new shares of Ali, which was mainly allocated to 6 new products with overseas investment channels. In the public offering fund products, the New Asia Pacific QDII part of the Greater China was allocated new shares with ALI, which was about 180 million RMB in the middle of 2014, and did not hold Tencent holdings.

A fund analyst in Shanghai said that the size of the new QDII shares allocated to Alibaba was very small. Compared with the market value of Alibaba $about 220000000000 and its position in the stock market, it is expected that some QDII will take the initiative to buy in the two tier market in the future. After all, Alibaba has become the leading stock in overseas stock market, and the market value can only be compared with that of Alibaba, such as PetroChina, China Mobile, ICBC and China Construction Bank.

In mid August of this year, when Tencent holdings announced slightly better than expected second quarter results, the stock price reached HK $134. At that time, many brokerages increased the target price and investment rating of Tencent holdings. Some of them also saw the negative impact of changing Ma Ali on Tencent holdings and downgraded their investment rating.

Hongkong Guo Hao capital's research report thinks that investors may change some of their funds to Alibaba, so the Tencent's rating will be lowered to hold. The target price will be raised to HK $137, which is equivalent to 35 times the expected price earnings ratio in 2015.

The strong performance of Tencent's stock price is due to the market's longing for good performance and the rebound in the valuation of Chinese stocks.

Before listing and early listing, Tencent's share price was reduced by HK $134 from HK $116.5 to HK $116.5 on Friday.

According to industry analysis, the recent weak performance of Tencent Holdings has two main reasons, namely, the impact of the listing of Ali and the overall adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, which has little to do with the fundamental changes of Tencent, because the fundamentals of Tencent holdings have been better since the second quarter.

At the closing price in September 26th, Alibaba listed on the NYSE traded at US $90.46, with a market value of US $227 billion 300 million, and the Tencent holding stock price at HK $116.5 HK $1 trillion and 90 billion, or US $140 billion 500 million, and Alibaba's market value was about 1.6 times that of Tencent holdings.

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Alibaba's market capitalization corresponds to a one year earnings earnings ratio of about 41 times, and Tencent holding about 42 times, which is almost the same. Compared with the annual expected earnings from the end of April 2014 to the end of March 2015, the price earnings ratio of Alibaba is about 32 times, and the price earnings ratio of Tencent holdings is about 30 times.

A heavily held Tencent holding company

Fund managers said that overseas institutional investors have invested heavily in Ali by investing in new shares, and because QDII is hard to get the original shares of Ali listed, the allocation ratio is obviously lower than that of international counterparts. In the future, there will be more demand for configuration, but it will not be heavily involved in the initial stage of the listing, and will wait for Ali's stock price to stabilize. After looking at the change of profitability, we will choose to build a warehouse again. Therefore, Jiancang may have to wait until the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of next year.

He further said that as Ali and Tencent's overall valuation of the difference is not large, the total market capitalization and domestic influence is also in the same grade, all benefited from the great development of China's Internet market. For QDII fund managers, changing horse Ali can also share the growth of China's Internet revenue. If Ali's profit growth and development momentum is faster and better, it does not rule out that Ali replaced Tencent in 2015 to become the first heavy warehouse stock of QDII.