Judging The New Normal Of China'S Economy From The Overall Situation Of Strategy

The most fundamental feature of the "new normal" proposed by general secretary Xi Jinping is the pformation of economic growth rate, which indicates that China's economy is undergoing a phased change, reflecting the objective trend that the potential growth rate of the economy has declined in the medium and long term.

The average annual growth rate of China's economy over the past 30 years is close to 10%, creating a "China miracle" in the history of world economy.

China's economy has entered the new normal, mainly based on the following factors:

First, the global economic structure has been profoundly adjusted and the external demand has been shrinking.

One of the important factors supporting China's rapid economic growth over the past 30 years is that it is developing an export-oriented economy.

But in the new historical development stage, especially since the 2008 international financial crisis, the world economy has shown the characteristics of "slow growth in aggregate demand and deep adjustment of economic structure", which has caused the external demand to atrophy in China.

Economic powers such as the US and Europe have put forward the measures of "re industrialization", "2020 strategies" and "rebirth strategy". Trade protectionism has been rising, and developing countries are making efforts to adjust the development mode and accelerate the development of industries with comparative advantages, which makes the external demand environment supporting the rapid growth of China's economy no longer exist.

Two, innovation driven competition is more intense, and the pformation and upgrading of industrial structure lag behind.

At present, the third industrial revolution is coming forward. The main developed countries are speeding up the emerging industries, trying to seize the commanding heights of technological innovation and industrial development in the future. These new challenges push China's economic development mode to accelerate the innovation driven pformation.

However, the excessive allocation of scientific and technological resources in China has led to a serious waste of scientific and technological resources, many industries are not competitive enough, and core technologies are being restricted to others. It is still an indisputable fact that we need to slow down the pace of economic growth and create room and time for innovation driven economic pformation and upgrading.

Three, the traditional demographic dividend is decreasing and the resources and environment constraints are being strengthened.

China's economic growth structure is undergoing historic changes.

At present, the shortage of labor supply in the eastern developed areas is more obvious. The "turning point of Lewis" is coming, and the traditional demographic dividend that drives the export-oriented economy is gradually weakening.

Correspondingly, our economic growth mode which relies heavily on investment and external demand has made the influence of energy, resources and environment more and more obvious. The external dependence of important mineral resources is constantly improving, and the pressure of ecological environment is constantly increasing. The marginal supply increment of elements has been unable to support the traditional economic rapid development path, which also objectively leads the Chinese economy to gradually fall to a new stable growth range.

Four, we are faced with the challenge of crossing the middle-income trap, and the reform dividends need to be released vigorously.

In 2013, China's per capita GDP exceeded 6000 US dollars, and has entered the ranks of upper and middle income countries. Currently, it is in a critical historical stage that can overcome the "middle income trap". In the future, we must gradually adjust the pattern of economic growth with high speed, seek new growth momentum, protect and improve people's livelihood, and realize the universal sharing of reform and development dividends.

The new normal economy is a comprehensive pformation and upgrading of the economy.

On the whole, the new normal economy includes the rich connotation and characteristics of economic growth rate pformation, industrial structure adjustment, economic growth dynamic change, resource allocation mode pformation, economic well-being sharing and so on.

First, the growth rate will change from high speed to high speed.

From the past ten years, from 2003 to 2007, China's economy has maintained a high growth rate of two figures for five consecutive years. In 2008, it was down to the single digit growth under the influence of the international financial crisis, while 2012 and 2013 further fell to 7.7% annual growth rate.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, GDP grew by 7.4% in the first half of 2014, and the economic growth rate showed a more stable trend.

Economic growth rate is the general rule of an economy reaching middle income level. After World War II, some successful catching up countries such as Japan, Germany and Korea experienced high speed after the 60s and 70s of last century.

We must deal with the "shifting period" of economic speed rationally and treat the new normal growth of middle and high speed with "normal mind".

The two is the pformation of the industrial structure from the low to the middle.

Since reform and opening up, China's industrial structure is mainly located in the middle and low end of the global value chain, and its comparative advantage is relatively low.

In 2013, the added value of the third industry in China accounted for 46.1% of the GDP ratio, the first time to exceed second industries. In the first half of this year, this proportion climbed to 46.6%, which is a very good sign of structural optimization.

Since the establishment of the new government, a series of measures have been put forward to provide a strong policy guarantee for accelerating the realization of healthy China, pension China and broadband China.

In the future, by vigorously promoting the development of strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing industries, giving priority to the development of producer services and gradually resolving the risk of overcapacity, we will further enhance the position of China's industry in the global value chain and create "China's benefits".

The three is the pformation of growth momentum from factor driving to innovation driven.

Over the past 30 years, our country has gone through the road of economic development with high input, high consumption, high pollution and low output. At present, the mode of economic growth driven by factor is hard to continue.

Facing the new wave of technological innovation and industrial revolution in the world, the power of China's economic growth is gradually changing in the face of the obvious enhancement of enterprises' active pformation and innovation desire.

Statistics show that the total factor productivity of China in 2013 is nearly 3 times that of 1978, which is the result of comprehensive effects of institutional reform, technological progress and structural optimization.

China's economy is gradually changing the driving force of growth, and gradually turning to an innovation driven new normal economy, creating "China's quality", and truly achieving the growth rate "down the steps", and the quality of growth is "going up the ladder".

Four, the allocation of resources will pform from the basic role of the market to the decisive role.

The the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee decision of the party put forward "making the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources", reflecting our party's understanding of the laws of market economy.

In the new normal market plays a decisive role, the government does not engage in strong stimulus or big adjustment. It mainly pfers the decisive power of allocation of resources to the market through changing functions, decentralization and decentralization, reducing taxes and giving profits, and continuously strengthens the endogenous driving force of the economy, and makes up for "market failure" by means of interval regulation and directional regulation.

Five is the pformation of economic well-being from non balanced to inclusive sharing.

In recent years, the income of rural residents in China has increased faster than that of urban residents. The narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural areas has begun to show, and the proportion of residents' income in national income has increased. New progress has been made in the reform of income distribution system.

With the accelerated development of new urbanization and new rural construction in our country, the pformation from the two dimensional structure of urban and rural areas to the one yuan structure has accelerated the formation of a new type of workers' and peasants' urban and rural relations, which are promoting agriculture through work, promoting rural areas with cities and towns, giving workers and peasants mutual benefit, and integrating urban and rural areas.

In addition, great and gratifying changes are taking place in the pattern of regional growth and coordinated development.

Under the new normal situation, the gradual development of economic well-being towards inclusive sharing will be a long-term trend.

It is not an easy task to push China's economy into a new normal. It is not natural to achieve it. It is necessary to work hard to achieve it.

In the coming period, we must stick to the general keynote of steady progress and actively adapt to the new normal. We need to maintain the usual mindset in strategy, deal with the impact brought about by various uncertainties, and take the initiative in tactics.

We must give prominence to the important role of deepening the reform in an all-round way, and follow the "Three Laws" of economic laws, social laws and natural laws, so as to realize the scientific development of the economy, the sustainable development of nature, the inclusive development of the society, and actively release the "Chinese dividend", so as to promote the economy to enter a stable growth period of about 7.5%.

First, vigorously implement decentralization and realize the decisive role of the market in the new normal.

Under the new normal situation, first, we should further promote the reform of the administrative examination and approval system, and actively establish a long-term mechanism for the third party assessment, and put the high and effective items of examination and approval into the market and enterprises thoroughly; two, we should strengthen the functions of government service management, strengthen the supervision after events, innovate the way of supervision and service, gradually pform the service management mode and improve the service management efficiency; three, we should basically accomplish the institutional reform of provincial, municipal and county governments, and promote the structural optimization of the organizational structure; four, we should continue to promote the classified reform of public institutions, and gradually establish the government procurement service mechanism, so as to promote the socialization of basic public services.

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Second, we should promote structural reforms and maintain a new normal economic growth.

Under the new normal economy, economic growth is shifting instead of stall, and economic development still needs to maintain a reasonable growth rate, because development is still the key to solve all the problems in China.

Economic data in the first half of 2014 show that China's economic operation is facing greater downward pressure and facing greater risks in economic operation. First, we need to push forward the reform of demand structure, especially to actively seek new consumption hot spots and growth points; two, to promote urban and rural structural reform, to actively promote new urbanization, and to build an integrated system of urban and rural development; three, to promote regional structural reform, to stabilize the economic scale of the eastern coastal developed areas and to avoid "stall" in the economy; four, to promote the industrial structure reform, and to build an innovation driven industrial upgrading mechanism; five, to promote the reform of income distribution structure, and strive to protect and improve people's livelihood.

Third, plan and promote innovation with a global vision to achieve the new normal of innovation driven economy.

The new normal economy is an innovation driven economy. We must put the upgrading of technological innovation capability and application pformation ability in the core position of promoting the formation of a new normal economy.

We must adhere to the path of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics, plan and promote innovation in a global perspective, and actively foster new products and formats.

We should deepen the reform of science and technology and education system, and strive to build a national innovation system that combines enterprises as the main body, market orientation and production, study and research. We should improve the knowledge innovation system, strengthen basic research, frontier technology research, and social public welfare technology research, improve the level of research and the ability to pform fruits and fruits, and actively resolve various risks of economic operation, take the path of innovation driven and endogenous growth, and strive to form a new situation of "everyone's innovation".

Fourth, deepen

Financial reform is supporting the industry towards a new high end.

In the new normal economy, the industrial structure is in the middle and high-end economy, which requires a sound fiscal and taxation system to support it.

From the perspective of fiscal and taxation system reform, we should speed up the reform of "camp to increase", and further increase financial and tax support for producer services.

From the perspective of financial system reform, we should continue to promote the marketization of interest rates, and gradually expand the pricing range of financial products of financial institutions, so that financial products can truly serve the development of the real economy.

We should steadily and steadily promote the reform of financial institutions, such as small and medium-sized banks initiated by private capital.

Fifth, safeguard and improve people's livelihood, so that people in urban and rural areas can share the new normal dividend reform.

We should strengthen the establishment of the system of land ownership in rural areas, deepen the reform of household registration system, intensify the reform of the educational system, health care system and pension service system, actively and steadily push forward the construction of new urbanization, further implement the strategy of regional coordinated development, accelerate the pformation from two to one yuan in urban and rural areas, deepen the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions, innovate macro-control methods and accelerate the development of service industries, support the development of small and micro enterprises, and strive for employment growth.