Li Xunlei: Structural Bull Market Remains Unchanged

Li Xunlei believes that the proportion of institutional investors in the mainland market is still very low. Shanghai and Hong Kong have little influence on the market structure through the short term. Taiwan Market From 1994 to 2003, the proportion of foreign investment rose to 23%, but the proportion of mainland QFII in ten years was only 3%, reflecting the stricter foreign exchange control. equity market The market value is relatively large.

But at present, even if Taiwan and Korea market are still dominated by retail investors and have not become mature markets dominated by institutional investors, it is expected that the A retail era will continue. But in the long run, apart from Shanghai and Hong Kong, there will be Shanghai, Taiwan, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as well as Singapore and other places of Shanghai new communications, etc., institutional investors will be a lot of arbitrage products and channels.

However, there are many mechanism It's also a retail investment idea, and Li Xunlei expects that it will be ten years or even more difficult to change it. At present, the A shares show two major characteristics: first, the game that continues to be injected into assets, the high price earnings ratio and even many companies withdraw from the us to the domestic market, showing that although the scale of the domestic market has increased a lot in 20 years, there has not been much essential change.

Two, the injection of state-owned enterprises is still continuing. At present, the debt level of enterprises is about 130% of GDP, while the debts of American enterprises account for about 75%. This is because the quality of American enterprises is relatively good and corporate governance is relatively good. The improvement of stock prices in the future is necessarily based on the improvement of the quality of enterprises. He also revealed that after the central economic work conference, there will be corresponding measures for the reform of state-owned enterprises, which investors expect.

Li Xunlei warned investors not to expect too much interest rate cuts and drop rates. Recently, there are many reports predicting the rate of interest reduction, but next year's policy focus will also be on fiscal policy, because at present, under the marketization of interest rates, the effect of official interest rate reduction is doubtful. The government may eventually choose larger fiscal policies, such as the amendment of the budget law introduced next year. The process of reform is slow, but there are still many tools.

Overall, Li Xunlei believes that the current Chinese economy is still driven by investment. If steady growth can be achieved and the reform measures are pushed forward, the bad debts of banks will gradually be eliminated, and there will be room for future market valuation improvement.