The RMB Exchange Rate Has Tended To Be Balanced And Reasonable.

In January 22nd, Guan Tao, director of the balance of Payments Division of the State Administration of foreign exchange, said at the news conference of the new China office that China's RMB exchange rate has been at a reasonable level. At the same time, China's foreign exchange market remained stable last year, and the demand for foreign exchange was guaranteed. Foreign exchange market liquidity was sufficient, and there was no panic accumulation of foreign exchange by enterprises and individuals.

In November 2014 and December, the gap between supply and demand of foreign exchange converged from US $2 billion to $10 billion in the first two months.

Guan Tao said that at the end of last year, although the RMB bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar had a short-term downward trend, its currency exchange rate for major trading partners continued to be strong.

In 2014, the RMB and the real effective exchange rate index compiled by the bank for International Settlements all reached a record high, rising by 6.4% and 6.2% respectively in the whole year and 40.5% and 51% respectively in 2005.

From the international experience, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate also runs counter to the goal of RMB internationalization.

Relative stability is very important.

Guan Tao said that under the influence of two factors abroad and domestic, cross border capital flows in 2015 will be staged alternately with the outflow and inflow. The RMB exchange rate will not depreciate significantly and will not appreciate significantly. At the same time, the bilateral fluctuation of exchange rate will be more frequent.

From an international perspective,

The expected increase in the spread of interest rates and the narrowing of the spread between domestic and foreign markets may lead to a phased outflow of capital and bring about a devaluation trend. However, the easing monetary policy in the euro area and Japan may have a hedging effect in a specific period.

From the domestic perspective, it is expected that the trade surplus will continue to expand in 2015, the domestic real estate market will stabilize and stabilize, the stock market will gradually warm up, the financial and capital market reform will release vitality, and international capital may flow inflow stage by stage, and other factors will bring the pressure of RMB appreciation.

Bidirectional oscillation is in line with regulation and reform direction.

For the two-way oscillation of RMB exchange rate and cross-border capital, Guan Tao believes that it is in line with the direction of China's macroeconomic regulation and reform.

On the one hand, with the advance of the marketization reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the central bank gradually fades from the normal foreign exchange market intervention and gradually gets rid of the mode of relying on foreign exchange to supply the basic currency, allowing the exchange rate to become normal according to the two-way fluctuation of market supply and demand.

This will not only effectively prevent cross border arbitrage and arbitrage, but also enhance the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy.

In the future, the pattern of bilateral fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is bound to become more normalized.

On the other hand, the two-way fluctuation of RMB will promote the process of China's "remittance to the people" and further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

In 2014, China's foreign exchange deposits increased, but domestic foreign exchange loans decreased, indicating that most of the foreign exchange deposits were used by banks for overseas investment, making foreign exchange centralized holdings from the central bank in the past.

Pay attention to "European version QE" spillover effect

The euro is facing greater devaluation pressure as the market expects stronger quantitative easing in the future.

In January 15th, the Swiss central bank abruptly renounced the Swiss franc's exchange rate limit for 3 years, allowing the Swiss Franc to rise.

On the day of the announcement, Swiss Franc appreciated nearly 30% against the euro, and the international exchange market was "bloodshed".

In response to the reporter's comment on the possible impact of the euro version QE on the RMB exchange rate, he said that the euro area is the world's major economy and the euro is also the world's major currency, so its macroeconomic policy has a huge spillover effect.

Guan Tao believes that the euro zone's possible "European version of QE" has both advantages and disadvantages to China.

On the one hand, under the normalization of monetary policy in the United States, "Euro version QE" will help to alleviate the tightening effect of QE withdrawal in a certain extent. On the other hand, the differentiation of monetary policy in major economies will affect the exchange rate between major currencies, which will aggravate the oscillation of international financial market, especially the foreign exchange market, and the difficulty of managing cross-border capital flows and exchange rate expectations in emerging markets will also increase.

In addition, Guan Tao stressed that "Euro version QE" is only one of the important external factors that affect the trend of RMB exchange rate. We need to make a comprehensive analysis based on other factors, make overall judgments, make relevant plans to avoid the sharp fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, and maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market.