Analysis Of The Relative Weakness Of Money Supply

One side is the sea, the other is the flame. Compared with macroeconomic data, financial data is lower than market expectations. In the first quarter, the scale of social financing increased to 4 trillion and 610 billion, 894 billion 900 million less than that of the same period last year. In March, the scale of social financing increased by 1 trillion and 180 billion, 837 billion 800 million less than that of the same period last year.

In fact, the first quarter of the country fixed assets The growth rate of investment has slowed down, especially the credit has obviously reduced its support. Statistics Bureau data show that from fixed assets investment funds, first quarter funds in place 10 trillion and 270 billion, an increase of 6.8% over the same period, of which, the national budget funds and self raised funds increased by 11% and 11.3% respectively, domestic loans and foreign capital utilization decreased by 3.7% and 33.5% respectively.

On the other hand, although the external trade surplus reached 755 billion 330 million in the first quarter and expanded 6.1 times compared to the same period last year, the increase in foreign exchange holdings still did not stop the negative growth. At the end of the first quarter, foreign exchange accounted for 26 trillion and 820 billion of the balance, a decrease of 252 billion 100 million in the first quarter, an increase of 1 trillion and 40 billion over the same period last year. In March, it decreased by 230 billion 700 million in the month and 404 billion 800 million in the same period.

The sharp drop in new foreign exchange reserves has led directly to changes in the structure of the central bank's basic currency. Although the central bank maintained relatively loose monetary policy, the broad money supply M2 increased by only 11.6% in the first quarter, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, which is lower than the 12% annual target of regulation.

Due to the shrinking of off balance sheet financing, the scale of social financing declined sharply in the first quarter. Among them, the real economy is entrusted by loans, trust loans and non discounted bankers' acceptances total financing is 385 billion 900 million, 1 trillion and 140 billion less than the same period last year.

　　 Credit scale Still growing faster. RMB loans increased by 3 trillion and 610 billion in the first quarter, up 625 billion 300 million over the same period last year, accounting for 78.3% of the increase in the scale of social financing over the same period, 24.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Sheng Songcheng, director of the central bank statistics department, said that a large number of off balance sheet businesses were transferred to the table, which is related to strengthening supervision and control by regulators and preventing financial risks. This can shorten the financing chain to a certain extent, reduce the risk of financing and reduce the financing cost of enterprises, which is conducive to the steady operation of financial institutions and the support of the real economy.

Nevertheless, the decline in the total scale of social financing reflects to some extent the weak demand for corporate financing.

The financing structure has also been reflected in the overall macro-economy. In the first quarter, GDP's consumption contribution pattern continued to strengthen, and the investment pull effect slowed down.

Data show that in the first quarter, the added value of industrial production above designated size increased by 6.4% compared to the same period last year, the growth rate dropped by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, fixed assets investment was 7 trillion and 750 billion, the price deduction factor increased by 14.5% compared to the same period, and the growth rate dropped 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Fixed assets amounted to 10 trillion and 270 billion, an increase of 6.1% over the same period, of which 3.7% was raised by domestic loans.

This means that although the overall credit growth in the first quarter is relatively large, the pulling effect on fixed asset investment is decreasing.

Spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics Sheng Lai Yun "At present, China is at a critical stage of structural adjustment, and is in a critical period of climbing over the ridge. The process of de stocking and de industrialization of traditional industries needs a process. The growth of new power needs a process, and the succession of new power needs a process. In the short term, these pressures will affect the downward trend of the economy. "

It is worth noting that under the policy driven, the financing structure is gradually improving. In addition to the significant drop in off balance sheet financing, the proportion of direct financing has increased significantly in the first quarter, and the domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises has been 180 billion 800 million yuan, up 83 billion 300 million yuan over the same period.