Entering The Basket SDR Is Coming, The New RMB Financing Will Come Out.

Recently, there are many topics about RMB.

In addition to the appearance of the "tyrant king" version of the renminbi, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has dropped ten, and the information about joining the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) has also been concerned by the market.

For ordinary citizens, it is not enough to raise the value of the renminbi in the pocket just for the sake of "face value". In the future, whether the appreciation or depreciation will be made, and whether the RMB financing plan needs to be adjusted has become a problem that we need to solve urgently.

SDR is the abbreviation of SpecialDrawingRight. It is a reserve asset and account unit created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1969, also known as "paper gold".

In short, most countries used the US dollar as the international currency, but once the dollar collapsed, that would lead to a crisis. Therefore, after the reform of IMF, SDR.SDR was set up by four Basket Currencies, namely, the US dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen, which accounted for 41.9%, 37.4%, 11.3% and 9.4% respectively.

RMB basket SDR is to make the Renminbi the fifth basket currency of SDR and become the world currency.

According to the arrangement, the IMF Executive Board will hold a meeting in November 30th to discuss the basket of RMB. Although this is a big probability event, it has been reported that the real basket of the renminbi will have to wait until October next year, because IMF recommends that the existing basket of currencies be postponed for 9 months to September 30, 2016.

That is to say, until October of next year, central banks will complete the allocation according to the proportion of currencies in the new basket.

Statistics show that with the RMB becoming an international settlement currency, currency devaluation and import inflation pressure will also be reduced, for example, commodities, raw materials and so on will be denominated in Renminbi and exchange rate risk, and no longer need to worry about the increase in import cost of the appreciation of the dollar.

For reasons,

The demand for exchange rate stability for basket currencies will therefore remain relatively stable in the future.

However, in the short term, as the US interest rate hike is expected to increase and the US dollar index continues to rise, the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate will increase in the near future.

In terms of consumption, the renminbi has become the world currency.

The purchasing power will also increase, and Hai Tao will be cheaper. For overseas travel, you can take a card.

From the perspective of investment, the domestic investors can directly stir up stocks in the future, that is to say, it is expected to introduce qualified domestic investors (QDII2), so that domestic retail investors will have the opportunity to purchase the "stocks" listed overseas, and even invest overseas in industrial and real estate.

In the future, investment in Hong Kong stocks will be further liberalized. There is a view that AH shares have no risk arbitrage space.

For example, when the A share price is higher than the H share, the A share will be reduced and the H-share stock will be bought. Conversely, when the H-share price is higher than the A share, the institutional investors can also sell H-shares and buy A shares. The arbitrage operation is almost without risk, and investors only choose which market to buy shares.

In terms of low risk financial management, due to the inflow of international capital, fixed income products and high-grade bonds will be favored by foreign investors, and more products will be available to the general public.

China's foreign exchange market data show that on Tuesday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar increased by 10 basis points to 6.3740, ending the 10 consecutive trading days.

Data show that in November 2nd, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3154; in November 16th, the central parity price was 6.3750, and the interval dropped by 596 basis points.

At 2:30 p.m. on November 16th, the offshore exchange rate and the on shore exchange rate soared by 275 points and 123 points respectively, showing that the market was on Tuesday.

Ending the expected reduction.

According to analysts' judgment, the central parity of the RMB ended ten consecutive falls, mainly related to basket SDR, especially at the G20 summit.

However, a researcher in Shanghai told reporters that there was little suspense in the basket SDR. Therefore, this positive impact is limited. Next, the market will focus on the Fed's interest rate raising process, which will have a certain impact on the short-term RMB exchange rate.

Earlier, the US non farm employment data in October exceeded expectations, and the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 271 thousand people in that month.

Generally speaking, the non-agricultural data will affect the Fed's monetary policy toward the US dollar, the economic downturn, the Fed will tend to cut interest rates, the dollar will depreciate, and the economy will be good, the Fed will tend to raise interest rates and the US dollar will appreciate.

The researchers estimate that the US dollar index is more likely to break through 100 points, and the fluctuation range of RMB against the US dollar will be between 6.34 and 6.40 during the year.