The Biggest Decline In China'S Stock Market Is Close To 50%.

In 2015, China's stock market experienced a short and crazy "leveraged bull" market.

It is no doubt the true portrayal of the Chinese stock market in the last two years.

However, since the second half of 15 years, when the stock market bubble burst, China's stock market has undergone a rapid "deleveraging" and "de bubble" process.

Affected by this, in the following half a year or so, the stock market's largest decline was close to 50%, and the wealth of the middle class suffered a significant shrinkage.

However, it is worth noting that although the recent decline in the stock market over the past six months has not been able to catch up with the overall decline in 2008, the stock market crash this time is essentially different from that at that time.

Among them, the sharp rise and fall of the stock market is closely related to the overall activation of high leverage tools.

Affected by this, in the most frenzied time of bull market, because of the temptation of huge profits, many funds also have access to highly leveraged capital tools, and try to maximize profits.

At the same time, even more startling is that for the relatively prudent listed shareholders, they can not tolerate the temptation of huge profits, but do not hesitate to take stock pledge, raise the leverage ratio of capital and other means to expand their investment returns.

It can be seen that in the recent half year many stock markets irrational slump process, falls most hurts, such kind loses investment rational investor.

Affected by this, the stock market suffered a burst crisis, and the financing disk encountered the risk of liquidation, and the hypothecated disk had successively experienced the crisis of early warning and even liquidation, and the market systemic risk was also close to the outbreak.

In fact, at the craziest moment of the bull market, the two balance of the Chinese stock market soared to 2 trillion and 270 billion.

At the same time, the potential size of OTC assets is as high as 2 trillion.

In this regard, if the total market capitalization at the time of the peak market was calculated, the ratio of leverage funds to total market capitalization also reached 6% to 8%.

Obviously, in the context of the full activation of the leverage fund in China's stock market, it also implied that the stock market had great risks.

After more than half a year's "deleveraging" and "de bubble" process, the Chinese stock market has been temporarily stabilized.

At this point, the potential leverage of the market has been greatly reduced.

However, in the early stage of the "deleveraging" and "de bubble", it has also changed the fate of countless investors.

To date, the high leverage crisis in China's stock market has been temporarily lifted.

However, following the outbreak of the high leverage crisis in the stock market, China's front-line property market is also gradually highly leveraged.

Among them, from the recent performance of the property market prices, the market price of the first tier cities led by the northern Guangzhou Shenzhen has been soaring sharply.

For the core areas of Shenzhen and Shanghai, housing prices are showing a crazy side.

The real estate market in Shanghai has come up with quotations of "one day and several prices". The price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has been rushed to 52 thousand and 600 yuan per square meter, and Shanghai real estate has not been pferred to other countries to earn millions.

In fact, for this series of irrational soaring prices, there are both the policy driving factors and the credit force factors. At the same time, there are also some factors such as developers' starting price and raising prices.

Among them, from the perspective of policy factors, the "down payment" and "reduced tax" act laid a good policy foundation for the recovery of the real estate market during the year.

As for credit, China's new credit reached 2 trillion and 510 billion in January this year, creating the highest level in recent months.

However, it is a pity that behind the huge volume of credit, the real estate market has not been pferred from real meaning to the real economy. Instead, it has indirectly boosted the real estate market and has become a booster for some of the first tier cities.

However, in the above-mentioned series of positive factors to promote at the same time, the "high leverage" full activation, undoubtedly to a large extent, helped to increase the price trend of some core areas.

I believe that in recent one or two years, from the stock market crazy to the forefront of the real estate market, the nature of the hurricane is still reflected in these aspects.

First, under the backdrop of the fact that the real inflation rate of the current society is still at a high level, the real economy is under constant pressure and there is almost no effective investment channel.

In the absence of funds, the funds are forced to invest in the stock market and the property market which are expected to keep the value added.

Value added demand.

In the final analysis, it is still reflected in the fact that there are many private capital and few investment channels.

Second, for small and medium-sized enterprises, they are basically faced with narrow financing channels and financing difficulties.

However, under the background of the real economic downturn, some enterprises are more or less forced to pursue high-risk arbitrage.

Third, from the stock market crazy to the real estate madness, almost can not do without the figure of leverage.

Perhaps, in the context of the continuing high local debt pressure, we can achieve the goal of shifting the leverage risk with the opportunity of soaring stock market and real estate, but this needs further verification.

The author believes that the existence of leveraged funds is conducive to activating the market and improving the utilization ratio of funds.

In this regard, the existence of appropriate leverage is reasonable.

However, if we indulge the existence of high leverage or allow the full activation of highly leveraged capital tools, we will destroy the healthy operation of the market and even jeopardize the normal development of the real economy.

Obviously, whether it is highly leveraged stocks, or

After the frenzied speculation, the real estate industry can not get rid of the fate of value return.

Therefore, for high level providers, as in the 15 year high position of full education, 07 years, 300 yuan to accept the Chinese ship, after the craze, it is a long wait for years or even decades.

As a matter of fact, with the rising of the over-the-counter allocation in the real estate market, some real estate agencies have already separated from the nature of traditional businesses.

In addition, under the influence of huge moneymaking effects, such as joint real estate, crowd raising real estate and other more highly concealed highly leveraged real estate schemes, the potential leverage ratio of the real estate market has been greatly raised, which has hidden danger for its future "change".

Obviously, in view of the recent crazy performance of the real estate market, there are many similarities with the previous "leveraged bull market".

However, with the help of funds

The aggressive approach must really attract our attention.

In other words, in the context of the full activation of the leverage in the real estate market, if we continue to indulge in the phenomenon of high leverage, it will be easy for the tragedy of the stock market last year to happen in the real estate market.

In the end, the most painful ones are speculators who lack rational investment and blindly expand their leverage.

Even after the housing price has been accelerated to "deleveraging", it may lead to some "abandoning the housing supply and breaking the supply" phenomenon, and the potential risks of banks will also rise.

In fact, behind the current crazy performance of housing prices, we really need to think rationally.

As a manager, it is necessary to rationally guide the highly speculative behavior of the market, so as to gradually reduce the enthusiasm of speculation in the market.

It is worth mentioning that, according to statistics from some agencies, there are signs of negative growth in Shanghai's permanent resident population. From the specific data, Shanghai's foreign permanent population in 2015 has decreased by nearly 150 thousand compared with 14 years.

Perhaps this is a symbolic signal.

However, for its impact on housing prices, we need to observe the specific demographic situation.

In other words, if the outflow of homeowner's improved property buyers or part of the leveraged speculators, it will inevitably affect the future trend of the first tier housing prices.

However, if the outflow population belongs to farmers, students and ordinary laborers, the real impact on housing prices will not be too significant.

Thinking from another angle, with the outflow of such population, or returning to the 234 line cities, it can accelerate the pressure of local "de Stocking".