Senior Federal Reserve Officials: Interest Rate Hikes In June Or July Are Uncertain

This summer, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has recently started to heat up, and a Federal Reserve policymaker has added to this heated debate. James Bullard, chairman of St. Louis Federal Reserve, who has the voting power of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy conference this year, believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in June or July is not a nail in the face plan, but the employment figures clearly show that it is time to act.

Wall Street knowledge yesterday, the article mentioned that the former PMICO's CEO El-Erian, Guoxin Securities fixed analyst Dong Dezhi, the Fed's important external observers Tim Duy, Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha and Ernie Tedeschi, have said that the Fed's interest rate hike in June is not mature, and July is the best time to raise interest rates.

The article concludes that July is more likely. Increase interest The reason for this is that the two quarter economic data obtained by the Federal Reserve when it meets in June is very limited. There are still differences between the Federal Reserve and the extent of the economic recovery. When the meeting is held in July, the data will be able to determine whether the economy is rebounding. In July, the referendum on Britain's withdrawal has ended, and if the financial market stabilizes after the referendum, it will further reduce. Federal Reserve The threshold for raising interest rates.

Following Gross Then, another Jeffrey Gundlach, the fund manager, known as the "king of bonds", said last week: "the Fed has changed from" if data mode improves, we will turn green light on interest rates "and become" unless the data mode deteriorates, otherwise interest rates will be released. " He predicts that the probability of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve will be only 50% this year.

Bullard told CNBC today that the FOMC of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee will observe the data before making a decision. "There is no reason to anticipate June" to raise interest rates. The Fed has no reason to decide to raise interest rates at the conference meeting after the news conference. He said:

"We can wait until we meet to see the latest data and try to make wise decisions at that time. With regard to the press conference, I think we did not run into press conferences many times in the past few years. So in this environment, there is no press conference to act. Maybe you will think of a press conference because of our first interest rate increase. Is it necessary for each interest rate increase to have a press conference? I think it's doubtful.

In terms of employment, Bullard believes that the data is releasing a clear signal. The United States has "been in or surpassed" the full employment status, and the number of unemployed persons is far below the vacancy position.

In addition, Bullard also mentioned that the data outside employment is not so strong. In the current quarter, the GDP growth rate in the US is expected to be about 1.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate of GDP trend of 2%.

The last Federal Reserve meeting held in April this year kept interest rates unchanged, but the April meeting minutes released this month promoted the expected increase in the rate hike in June. The April meeting minutes said that if future data show that the US economy continues to improve, the Fed may raise interest rates at the June meeting. The overwhelming majority of participants thought that if the future data showed that the economy accelerated in the two quarter, the labour market remained strong and inflation moved towards the 2% target of the Federal Reserve, then the Fed would raise interest rates at the June meeting.

The news conference will be held after the meeting of the Federal Reserve scheduled for June this year. There will not be a press conference after July. After the announcement of the April meeting minutes, the probability of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve rose to 28% last week in June. The possibility of raising interest rates in July has become a hot topic for analysts.