The Complexity Of The Economic Environment Should Not Be Taken Lightly.

External economic environment is still uncertain.

The global economy is undergoing structural adjustment. The economic vulnerability of the major developed economies and emerging market economies, apart from the United States, is growing, with uncertain factors still increasing.

Multiple factors such as debt reduction pressure and macroeconomic imbalance lead to the low potential growth rate of European economy.

The marginal utility of the super conventional stimulus policy weakened, and the economic relations in East Asia became rigid.

In primary and low-end processing products

Under the influence of weakening and falling prices, the imbalance of economic structure in emerging and developing countries is still serious, and the overall economic growth rate is likely to slow down.

The lever risk of economic operation is increasing.

As an important part of this year's economic work, it is of great significance for stabilizing economic growth and reducing risks.

And the "spillover" effect caused by the expansion of the money supply and the relaxation of the housing market policy has aroused concern. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of excessive credit growth, corporate debt and real estate market leverage.

In 2015, new loans increased to 11 trillion and 720 billion yuan, the balance grew to 14.3% year-on-year, and 3 trillion and 200 billion of the debt replacement (conservative estimate of 1/3 belongs to bank credit, that is, 1 trillion yuan of credit), the actual credit balance growth rate should be about 15.6%.

In 2016, the pace of local government debt replacement accelerated. As of the end of April, the replacement scale exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the actual credit balance growth rate is expected to reach 17% to 18% throughout the year.

In 2014, the ratio of loans and bonds issued by enterprises in China to GDP was 110.72%, but in 2015, the ratio was 118.8%, taking into account the ratio of 120.38% after local debt replacement. It is expected that the ratio will increase to 129% to 131% in 2016.

The risk of re linkage between capital market and foreign exchange market still exists.

Current domestic and foreign economies

It is very complex and uncertain, and all kinds of factors are intertwined and superimposed.

At the beginning of 2016, China's stock market and foreign exchange market also experienced severe shocks, which affected the stable operation of the economy.

In the case of downward pressure on the real economy, coupled with possible external factors such as interest rate hikes, global capital market turbulence, geopolitical conflicts and other external factors, the risk appetite of international capital has declined, and the market's expectation of RMB depreciation is unlikely to recede in the short term.

Once the response is unsound, especially if there is another significant devaluation, the market panic will not be excluded, resulting in a sharp fluctuation in the exchange rate market and a large number of capital outflows, causing a sharp concussion in the domestic capital market.

The currency turmoil that once occurred shows that the impact of the offshore offshore market on the offshore market is far beyond expectations, which can not be taken lightly.

Therefore, in the future, we should prevent the recurrence of the turbulence of stock market and the pressure of capital outflow.

Unanticipated production capacity is likely to bring downward pressure on the economy.

Overcapacity industry is facing the pressure of weak demand in two aspects.

China's economy is undergoing pformation from industrialization to service industrialization, and the demand for industrial structure is weakened by economic structural pformation. After the financial crisis, the global economy is in the period of adjustment and recovery, and external demand is weaker, which has aggravated the excess pressure of traditional export industries.

At present, there are two characteristics of excess capacity: over capacity areas involve a large number of traditional industries, such as cement, steel, coal, ships, textiles, and some small commodities. The structural mismatch of production capacity is serious. Overcapacity industries are concentrated in traditional manufacturing industries with low energy and low technology content. However, the supply of products needed for economic restructuring and consumption growth is insufficient.