China'S Cotton Enterprises Are Blocked By Another Raw Material Channel.

According to foreign businessmen and importers, since July, China's textile enterprises and middlemen have adopted the "fixed price" way to sign the 7/8 month sailing date. The enthusiasm of Brazil cotton has obviously recovered, and the "ON-CALL" spot price contract has been greatly reduced, making preparations for the 9 and October cotton flower supply in China in the middle of October.

　　据分析，一方面无论从技术面、主产棉区天气及美元指数跌破95大关来看，ICE棉花期货进入上升通道，主力合约破68美分乃至70、72阻力位的概率大;另一方面由于港口保税和即期装运的2016/17年度美棉“长度、强力”等指标持续下滑(中后期花占比大);印度S-6仍处于“质不优，价不廉”状态，不受中国拥有1%关税内棉花进口配额纺企的关注，而随大量的澳棉中期花抵港、装运(纤维长度普遍1-5/32及以上，断裂比强度30GPT及以上)，买方开始“发力”;另外，6月下旬以来ICE主力合约持续在66-69美分/磅狭窄空间内波动，SM 1-5/32澳棉CNF报价跌至84-84.20美分/磅(折人民币一般贸易港口净重提货价约14400元/吨，不计1%关税内配额转让、租赁价格)，低于“双28/双29”本年度 Xinjiang cotton 2500-3000 yuan / ton.

Recently, some foreign businessmen and institutions analyzed the probability of the Chinese government's resumption of "temporary purchasing and storage" policy in 2017/18, and from the perspective of the supply and demand of high-quality cotton, the significant increase in the global planting area and the price of cotton on the outside, we promptly collected and collected "high-quality, no three silk" machine picked cotton, cotton and cotton. Brazil cotton And Wu cotton is a measure of "killing three birds with one stone". The announcement issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance on the arrangements for the rotation of national cotton reserves (No. ninth in 2016) clearly stated that in order to optimize the quality structure of reserve cotton stocks, a small number of high-quality cotton should be turned into cotton after the rotation of cotton reserves. The turn in time was concentrated on the new cotton market (from September to February of next year).

According to the actual output of cotton reserves in the previous year and the supply and demand situation of the cotton market in the year, the number of round trips will not exceed 30% of the actual annual output in the previous year. " Reserve cotton Digestion is mainly based on the principle of "asymmetric rotation, first round and backward entry, multiple rounds and fewer rounds". Therefore, I believe that in 2018 cotton import quota policy adjustment is not much hope (at least there is no news at present), the government started the purchase and storage in advance, and then came out in March after 2018 to meet the demand for high-quality cotton, so as to achieve precise regulation.

　　那么为什么应该收储外棉呢?一、内外棉花现货的价差过大(近3000元/吨)，不利于我国纱线、纺织品服装等出口;低价收储外棉后再以相对低的价格抛出，对纺企降成本、提竞争力非常关键;二、美棉、澳棉、巴西棉等高品质机采棉销售已“遍地开花”，越南、印尼、土耳其、印度等国纱厂“来势汹汹”，留给“单打单干”的中国用棉企业的采购机会并不多;三、经过三年储备棉轮出销售，品质稍好的新疆棉已大量轮出，资源逐渐枯竭，如果不及时收储，2018、2019年轮出的储备棉很难激发交易商竞拍兴趣，“去库存”无望;四、2017/18年度以后中亚棉出口量将大幅减少甚至不再出口(内需大增，棉纱、坯布出口占主导)，中国用棉企业又一条原料渠道被堵死，被迫参与全球资源争夺，胜负难料。

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