All Good Markets Exist In Ethylene Glycol Market.

The market price of ethylene glycol has been lingering low for a long time. At the end of June, the market price rose slightly, and the driving force was not enough. The price fell again in the week. The average price in June dropped by 10 yuan / ton compared with May. What are the factors that drive up the market price of ethylene glycol and those factors impede the rise of the glycol market?

Analysis of domestic ethylene glycol market in June:


Domestic glycol market continued weak shock pattern, the average price decreased by 10 yuan / ton slightly compared with last month. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market continues to fall, the cash flow of polyester products has shrunk sharply, and the terminal enterprises are purchasing a large amount of investment because of the value of investment. After two rounds of phased procurement, the inventory of polyester enterprises was effectively released, and the overall start load was raised to 90.26%. In this month, the mainstream importers reduced the contract volume, and the domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises started to reduce the load to 64%. With the reduction of polyester enterprise contract volume, the main port delivery is in good condition, and after the middle of June, it has accumulated nearly one hundred thousand tons of storage. In addition, the easing of trade risks provides support for commodities and geopolitical instability supports the continued strengthening of crude oil. Glycol in the low price area began to strengthen slightly, but the resilience was very limited. Towards the end of the month, businesses began to worry about the restart of pre maintenance devices, and the fear of demand side began to spread. The focus of the market fell again, to close at 4375 yuan / ton.

At present, the profits of domestic ethylene glycol enterprises are:


In the last week of June, the domestic ethylene glycol market rebounded slightly, and the profitability of the various processes showed a different turn for the better. Among them, the profit from coal to ethylene glycol is -9449 yuan / ton; the profit from methanol to ethylene glycol is -1560.7 yuan / ton; ethylene glycol makes us $-88 / ton; the profit of naphtha to ethylene glycol is US $-23.7 / ton.

Maintenance situation of ethylene glycol enterprises in China:

Enterprise name	capacity	Date of maintenance
Anhui Huaihua Group Co., Ltd.	Ten	2018.4.28- undetermined
Luoyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	2018.12.9- undetermined
Puyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	4.2-6.20
Xinxiang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	6.1-6.8
Yangmei group Shenzhou Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty-two	5.2-6.12
Xinjiang production and Construction Corps Tian Ying petrochemical Limited by Share Ltd	Fifteen	4.26-6.20
China Petroleum Chemical Co Hubei Fertilizer Branch	Twenty	5.15-6.30
China Salt Anhui red Quartet Limited by Share Ltd	Thirty	5.29-6.23
Maoming petrochemical	Twelve	6.17-6.30
Liaoyang petrochemical	Twenty	6.17-7.17
Shanghai petrochemical	Twenty-three	Conversion to EO
Total	Two hundred and twelve
Enterprise name	capacity	Date of maintenance
Anhui Huaihua Group Co., Ltd.	Ten	2018.4.25
Luoyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	2018.12.9
Puyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	Four point two
Anyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	Seven Beginning of the month
Yongcheng Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	Six End of month
Qianxi Qian Xi Coal Chemical Investment Co., Ltd.	Thirty	Six Month (time undetermined)
China Petroleum Chemical Co Hubei Fertilizer Branch	Twenty	Five point one five
Xinjiang production and Construction Corps Tian Ying petrochemical Limited by Share Ltd	Fifteen	Four point two six
yanshan petrochemical	Eight	Six The end of July (undetermined)
Liaoyang petrochemical	Twenty
Shanghai petrochemical	Twenty-three
Total	Two hundred and six

In June, domestic ethylene glycol overhaul enterprises were mainly coal enterprises, involving 2 million 120 thousand tons of production capacity and 143 thousand and 200 tons of monthly loss, which did not include oil production and EO reduction and coal loss.

In July, domestic ethylene glycol overhaul enterprises were mainly coal enterprises, involving 2 million 60 thousand tons of capacity, compared with the overhaul in June, and the overall supply increased. By the end of June, the downstream polyester enterprises started to rise to 90.46%, and there is still a upward trend in the latter stage. Summing up, the total supply is negative, and it is positive from demand.

The main port inventory situation of ethylene glycol in China:


As of June 27th, the MEG port in East China's main port area has a stock of about 1 million 139 thousand tons. Among them, 81.4 tons of Zhangjiagang, a mainstream library daily delivery of about 11519 tons; Ningbo 78 thousand tons; Shanghai and Changshu 124 thousand tons; Taicang 83 thousand tons, the mainstream reservoir area daily delivery 3314 tons; Jiangyin 40 thousand tons.

It is estimated that next week (June 27th -7 3), the port of East China is expected to arrive at 211 thousand tons, of which 125 thousand tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 16 thousand tons for Taicang wharf, 50 thousand tons for Ningbo, 20 thousand tons for Jiangyin, and no port for Shanghai. Higher than any week in June, that is, late imports will increase.

Unit: 10000 tons

	Six 13 June	Six 20 June	Six 27 June	Seven 4 E	Seven 11 E	Seven 18 E
Main port inventory	One hundred and twenty-three point six zero	One hundred and nineteen point eight zero	One hundred and thirteen point nine zero	One hundred and fifteen point nine zero	One hundred and fifteen	One hundred and thirteen
Import volume	Nineteen point one zero	Sixteen point one zero	Ten point four zero	Twenty-one point one zero	Eighteen point nine zero	Eighteen point nine zero
Ethylene glycol production	Fourteen point seven zero	Fourteen point seven four	Fourteen point nine three	Fifteen point one zero	Fifteen point two zero	Fifteen point three zero
Total supply	Thirty-three point eight zero	Thirty point eight four	Twenty-five point three three	Thirty-six point two zero	Thirty-four point one zero	Thirty-four point two zero
Polyester demand	Thirty-three point zero three	Thirty-three point two five	Thirty-three point four three	Thirty-four point zero two	Thirty-four point zero seven	Thirty-four point zero one
Other requirements	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four
Aggregate demand	Thirty-five point two seven	Thirty-five point four nine	Thirty-five point six seven	Thirty-six point two six	Thirty-six point three one	Thirty-six point two five
Supply and demand gap	-1.47	-4.65	-10.34	-0.06	-2.21	-2.05

By the end of June 27th, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol in China was about -10.34 million tons, mainly due to increased demand for polyester, reduced imports, overhaul of enterprises, and overall supply changes were relatively small. Next week is expected to increase the volume of Hong Kong, the downstream polyester demand is less than the supply of ethylene glycol, the difference between supply and demand is estimated at -0.06 million tons.

Message side:

Xinhua news agency, Osaka, June 29, in the first meeting of the US dollar meeting held in June 29th, the heads of state of the two countries said that China and the United States resumed economic and trade consultations on the basis of equality and mutual respect. The US side said it would no longer impose new tariffs on Chinese exports. The two countries' economic and trade teams will discuss specific issues.

To sum up, the overall supply of ethylene glycol increased in July, the demand for polyester from the lower reaches increased, the air quality was offset, the import volume increased, the port inventory was expected to rise, and the profit was negative; the US and China resumed economic and trade consultations, and the terminal market was expected to turn better and better.

Ps: individuals tend to be weak and expect market prices to oscillate between 4200-4400 yuan per ton.