Upstream And Downstream Drag Polyester Filament Price Shocks Weak

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of domestic polyester filament in April showed a trend of first rise and then down. At present, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are reporting polyester POY150D/48F at 4900-5050 yuan / ton, polyester DTY150D/48F at 6400-6900 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY150D/96F at 5550-5600 yuan / ton. In the beginning of the month, the crude oil production was reduced by the news of crude oil production and cooperation. The market of raw materials was strongly supported by the market. The price of polyester filament products was slightly higher than before. However, with the weakening of raw materials and weak demand, the market turnover was cooling down, and prices began to fall in April 10th. The decline of polyester POY was more obvious. As of 27 days, the polyester POY (150D/48F) market was more obvious. The average price of the field is 4944 yuan / ton, which is 7.83% lower than 10 days.

　　 Polyester filament market average price rise and fall, unit: yuan / ton

Raw materials, crude oil slump, market sentiment frustrated, pressure to plate sentiment, the recent price recovery, but still maintained a relatively low trend, global crude oil demand sharply reduced, the supply side is still showing an increasing trend, facing the pressure of storage capacity, the market fundamentals remain weak. In March, due to the weakening of domestic demand, the pressure of PTA factory inventory was large, and domestic PTA production enterprises were overhauling and shutting down production. In the middle of 3, the PTA operating rate dropped to 69%. With the end of the inspection period and the weakening of crude oil, the higher the chemical products near the upper reaches, the higher the PTA processing fee increased to 805 yuan / ton last week when the naphtha and PX gave up profits. At such a high processing fee level, the PTA factory's production enthusiasm was very high, which led to the recent PTA operating rate has been above 90% level, significantly higher than the same period in previous years. At the same time, demand side has not been significantly improved, so the whole April PTA is still obviously in the storehouse, so far, PTA social inventory is 3 million 350 thousand tons. It is also necessary to note that with the commissioning of new devices, the domestic PTA capacity has reached 52 million 255 thousand tons, and the PTA capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than the capacity base in previous years, so the overall market supply pressure is very large.

　　 Recent changes in PTA device statistics

Downstream textile industry downturn, the current volume of light textile city is significantly lower than the same period in recent years, the market is light. From the start up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, as of April 26th, the overall starting rate was 48%. In the face of the upcoming May 1 holiday, some enterprises have begun to take leave. At the same time, affected by this public health event, the export orders for weaving were cancelled or postponed in large quantities. In the first quarter of 2020, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China amounted to US $45 billion 260 million, down 17.7% from the same period last year, of which 22 billion 690 million US dollars in textile exports, 14.6% in the same period last year, and 22 billion 570 million US dollars in clothing exports, down 20.6% over the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the downward trend of the cost is affected by the drop in crude oil. Under the pressure of PTA's continuous storage, it has not seen the turning point of the stock market. The high inventory or the normal state of PTA has not helped the current PTA fundamentals. Downstream terminal weaving foreign trade orders are missing, domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, and near the May 1 holiday, some weaving enterprises have planned to suspend work and leave early, there is a negative expectation. Affected by upstream and downstream drag, short term polyester filament market volatility is expected to be weak.