Long Plate Will Fall Probability Big Defense Preferred Three Themes

< p > recent a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Shanghai composite index < /a > repeated shocks in the 2000 point area. It is considered that the 2000 point market investors are increasing gradually. This conformity phenomenon is just a taboo in the investment market.

The more investors believe that the spot is the bottom area of the market, the more bullish funds come in, but the market has not yet started. Following the lack of funds will lead to a greater risk of downfall. This is also the inherent logic of the stock market's "long market will fall" phenomenon.

Looking at the macro-economic and A share historical trend, we believe that with the economic pformation and upgrading, the deepening of reform and the further improvement of the stock market system, the A share market is expected to open a new bull market, but the bottom is not yet known.

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< p > first, China is in a critical period of restructuring and promoting pformation.

The economy has entered the growth shift and structural adjustment pains, and the economic uncertainty is still high.

At the same time, under the background of the pformation of new and old development mode, the domestic macro policy orientation has undergone a fundamental change. The large-scale economic stimulus policy has not been consistent with the background of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > economic pformation < /a > upgrading.

Similar to the 2008 financial crisis, the day stimulus policy will not come out.

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< p > secondly, the risk of real estate has been released one after another, and the worst is yet to come.

In recent years, M2 has increased by more than 14%, but high interest rates coexist with shortage of money.

Among them, real estate is the chief culprit.

Existing evidence shows that the recent adjustment of the real estate industry is not only cyclical, but also more likely to be trend oriented.

If the real estate bubble burst, the funds would not flow into the stock market after withdrawal from the property market as investors expected.

Faced with the enormous pressure of the economic downturn, the confidence of investors in the stock market will also be tested.

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< p > Third, the recent central bank's "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "directional reduction" < /a >, but tightened monetary policy will continue.

In June 5th, the European Central Bank announced the interest rate cut, but domestic shadow banking, local debt and real estate bubble issues challenge the continued development of the currency.

In recent years, the central bank's directional reduction is matched with the monetary policy structure regulation and the micro stimulation direction since the two quarter. Monetary policy has evolved along the direction of structural relaxation rather than total relaxation.

The tightening of the currency and the opening of the new stock issue (IPO) will take time to digest the contradiction between supply and demand of the stock market.

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< p > Fourth, purchasing managers' index (PMI) rebounded, but the overall level was not high.

From the absolute value of data, although PMI is above 50, the deviation is not far away, and there is great possibility of fluctuation.

Secondly, from the historical data, the PMI is 50.8 in May, and the rise is a good phenomenon, but this level is only 50.4 higher than that in 2012, and 50.8 in the same period in 2013.

In the two quarter of 2012 and 2013, the economic growth rates were 7.6% and 7.5% respectively, all of which were at a low level of adjustment.

Moreover, from the data subdivision point, the new order, purchase volume and purchase price index have improved, but the employee index has dropped for two consecutive months.

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< p > fifth, the gem refers to the short line continues to rush, but high valuation growth stocks exist bubble risk.

The high growth stocks represented by the growth enterprise board rose year by year, and the gem index doubled, but the index has been at a high level in recent years.

Once the head is set up, the decline of the growth enterprise market will partly reflect the increase of last year, and the overall weakness of the market will continue if the blue chips are not improving.

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To sum up, in the light of the fact that the fundamentals of the economy have not yet bottomed out and the intensity of policy stimulus is limited, investors should not hold too high expectations for the rebound of the P market.

We believe that in the second half of this year, the trend of A share's continuation of weakness will be a probability event.

The first is to seek more defensive defensive sectors, such as agriculture and medicine, the two is blue chips with low dividend yield and abundant cash flow, so as to get more stable cash dividends.

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< p > market outlook, we believe that we can focus on the following three major themes: first, with the introduction of IPO, options and other derivatives business, the implementation of T+0 and other systems, and the innovation driven drive to performance driven investment opportunities for brokerages and Vc firms; two, after the IPO, a new round of speculation and speculation in the new wave of related hot stocks; three, we will focus on the theme of reform as the main line, and grasp the opportunities for state owned SOEs reform in the era of mergers and acquisitions.

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